Ukraine’s civil war, their effort toward energy independence from Russia and a desire for a nationalist state might be a glimpse into the European future. Ukraine is a wreck, and there’s no easy solution, or any at all, in sight. In Syria, there are options to act as band-aids. But, in Ukraine, we see opposing sides that have little or no interest in negotiating terms. Much of Eastern Europe is both suspicious and afraid of a Russian invasion. To the Europeans, they see another Russian imperial state. To a large extent, that’s the sole purpose of NATO. A buffer to counter Russian influence.
Russia has been on their heel rebuilding the future Secretary of State Rex Tillerson noted in his confirmation hearing. The Russians lay out a strategic plan – and act accordingly to implement it. They study their enemy, friends, and adversaries. They make corrections based on the information that comes back to them. They’re thoughtful and do not make a decision solely on the way they want to see the world. But, instead, based on a global reality and what they discover.
Ukraine is a fragile state, to say the least. Their efforts to join the West and unhitch themselves from Russia could send them into a freefall as a failed state at war with itself. If not, they might succumb to separatist rule and Russian influence while becoming enveloped into Russia’s sphere of influence. NATO and Eastern Europeans’ hair will stand in fear and anticipation.
Ukraine is nearing a failed state, if not already in its eastern sovereignty – the civil war. If you’re under constant artillery and threat of aggression, everyone might appear as an enemy. Nationalism has emerged across the West.