This report examines Qatar’s interests in Libya and the reasoning for its financial support for the GNA. As the geopolitical context in the region remains volatile, the timing for prediction has been settled for six months. For collection and processing, the author used OSINT, therefore the report is safe to be further distributed.

Key Judgements

KJ-1. Qatar was a major sponsor of militias fighting Gaddafi’s regime in the first Libyan civil war (2011). It is likely that the country has kept most of its proxies in the region and is using the same means — financial and political — to support the GNA.

KJ-2. It is likely that Qatar’s involvement in the second Libyan civil war represents a strategic move in the MENA region against the Saudi-led bloc. By sponsoring GNA and its allied militias, Qatar projects its influence alongside Turkey and the Muslim Brotherhood.

KJ-3. Qatar is unlikely to change its strategy in the next six months. There is a realistic probability that Qatar will increase its funds for the GNA and the affiliated militias to ensure the security of Tripoli against Haftar’s forces.