President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has commented that the city of Bakhmut is managing to hold its own despite being in a precarious position.

Elizabeth Shackelford, from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, warned that Kyiv’s inability to make significant headway against the increasing Russian army might lead to a drawn-out war in which Putin would have the advantage.

Zelensky said in his nightly address that the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut is holding its ground in the face of a ten-month-long conflict, regardless of the contrasting views on the Russian progress in the area. Russian military bloggers have proposed that the city is almost surrounded, which was denied by Ukraine. 

Even though most of the city has been demolished by Russian strikes, their defenders are strongly resisting the assaults. According to Western officials and analysts, Ukraine is likely to fulfill President Zelensky’s New Year’s commitment of regaining the entirety of Ukraine by the end of the year or at least reclaim sufficient land to eliminate the Russian threat. However, since around 100,000 Russian troops are entrenched in fortified positions, it will be challenging for Ukraine to make headway in 2023 compared to last year. According to Elizabeth Shackelford from the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, if Kyiv cannot gain significant successes against this fortified Russian force, the war could become a prolonged dispute which would be advantageous to Putin.

A Year of Victory for Ukraine? 

Ukraine is anticipating a successful year, yet it will take a lot of work to attain a decisive triumph over Russia.

President Vladimir Putin
(Source: The Presidential Press and Information Office/Wikimedia Commons)

Shackelford added that President Putin could draw out the conflict with Ukraine for years, which may drag on for a while. However, Ukraine will have very little chance of coming out on top.

With the introduction of advanced weapons, the steadfast support of the West, and the Ukrainian military’s outmaneuvering and outsmarting of Russia’s faltering forces, Ukraine’s predicted “year of victory” started well. Depending on how the rest of 2023 goes, Ukraine could potentially keep President Volodymyr Zelensky’s New Year’s promise to recover all of Ukraine by the end of the year or at least acquire enough land to definitively negate the Russian danger, according to Western officers and analysts. On the other hand, President Vladimir Putin’s New Year’s messages prepared Russians for a long battle. The Russians have set up fortified positions backed by at least one hundred thousand newly mobilized soldiers. This makes it complicated for Ukraine to attain breakthroughs in 2023, even with the impetus of their current successes, as stated by military experts. 

Shackelford also mentioned that a $45 billion assistance package authorized by Congress could provide Ukraine with some reprieve for the year, but beyond that is harder to predict since the 2024 US presidential elections are near.