Prelude

On the night of March 7, 2025, Russia launched a massive missile attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. The attack ranged across a number of Ukrainian regions. Targets included natural gas storage facilities in western Ukraine, and gas pipeline facilities in Sumy and Poltava.

No information was provided about the damage at Sumy and Poltava. The story was lost amid the noise of the larger attack. Figure 2 shows the locations of Poltava, Sumy, and Sudzha.

Map-Poltava-Sumy-Sudzha
Fig. 2 Map showing Poltava, Sumy, and Sudzha

The significance of the attack on Poltava would only become apparent later.  It was part of a  puzzle that  demonstrated the Russians’ ability to integrate planning at the operational and tactical levels.

 

Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive of August 6, 2024

My previous article How Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive Failed dealt in some detail with Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive. I encourage the reader to study that article for background because I will not provide an in-depth review here. Suffice it to say that, after initial success, the AFU offensive stalled. The Russians slowly tightened a vise around the salient, where the Ukrainians fortified the town of Sudzha. Instead of withdrawing his forces, Zelensky flowed more men and materiel into the salient. Rather than pushing the Ukrainians out of Kursk right away, the Russians took their time and ground down all the AFU pushed into the fire sac.

Kursk on March 7, 2025
Fig. 3  Kursk on March 7, 2025. AFU holds Sudzha, but the cauldron is closing. Map: ISW

 

Mission Impossible

As early as January, Russia began planning an operation to take Sudzha and collapse the salient. Ironically, Zelensky himself provided them with the key to the city. On January 1st, the Ukrainians shut off Russian gas to Europe. In a previous article, Ukraine shuts off Russian gas and causes higher prices, I described the Ukrainian gas pipeline system. There are two metered entry points from Russia – Sudzha in Kursk, and Sokhranivka in Luhansk. Ukraine shut Sokhranivka in 2022. It then shut down gas from Sudzha on New Year’s Day, 2025.

The Russian commanders studied the map. They realized the Ukrainians had just handed them a ready-made, nine-mile tunnel from Russian-held territory to Sudzha. Figure 4 shows the main geographical points. The Brotherhood Pipeline runs through Bol’shoe Soldatskoe on the Russian side of the lines and all the way to Sudzha and beyond. Figure 3 shows the same features, without specifically identifying the exit point.