Trump’s Ukraine Endgame: How He Likely Plans to End the War, Force Zelensky’s Hand, and Leave Putin with a Face-Saving Deal

If you believe the chatter in D.C. bars and Pentagon backrooms, the Ukraine war has become a saga of backroom deals, broken promises, and shaky alliances. And don’t get me started on the Biden’s dirty Ukrainian energy money that further fueled Hunter’s crack habit. You can’t make this stuff up.

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Imagine the scene: Zelensky in his olive green fatigues, Putin in his grey palace prison, and somewhere—half a world away—a former president in a red hat prepping for an encore on the world stage. It’s not the kind of peace talk you’d want to see, but maybe the only kind we’re going to get.

Let’s cut the bullshit. The Ukraine War endgame isn’t going to be some grand peace accord in Vienna with doves and champagne; it’s going to be a messy, bruising settlement with everyone trying to keep their honor intact—and Trump, if he returns, smirking like a fox who found his way back into the henhouse.

The Simple but Ugly Reality of U.S. Leverage

As much as we’d like to believe in altruism and alliance, the U.S. controls Ukraine’s fate as much as it controls the bill for dinner. The numbers don’t lie: America has put up over 60% of all Ukraine-related funding since this conflict escalated. That’s a whole lot of pressure, and Europe’s support, for all their high-sounding principles, falls short when they’re reminded about skyrocketing energy costs and the rising weight of their own refugee crisis.

If Trump comes back, he’ll call in the tab. The man knows how to close deals, and it wouldn’t be his first time in a high-stakes showdown. Here’s where it gets down and dirty: for Trump, the answer to Ukraine is simple—take a knife to the bloat, end the spending spree, and make it clear to Zelensky that there’s a new sheriff in town who doesn’t play by D.C.’s forever-war playbook.

A Trump Playbook for Ukraine: Deal Fast, Don’t Look Back

With Trump in office, look for a high-pressure solution to the tune of, “Look, Ukraine, you want to keep half the shirt on your back? Here’s the deal.” Zelensky is going to have to make peace with losing the Donbas and the regions around it—territories disputed since 2014.

The locals are already more pro-Russia than Kyiv, and holding onto these areas has become symbolic at best, a bloodbath at worst. And Trump, never one for sentimentality, would likely urge Zelensky to take the trade-off.

The pitch to the world might sound something like this: “Eastern Ukraine goes to Putin, NATO membership’s off the table, but Kyiv’s name goes in the EU guestbook.” For Zelensky, the dream of NATO protection is likely out the window, but a shiny European Union membership card? It’s a decent consolation prize in the end, something to wave around the Rada (if they ever get an election).

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The Corruption Card: Zelensky’s Tarnished Halo

Let’s not forget, this isn’t a fairy tale of democracy vs. autocracy, good vs. evil. Ukraine has its own skeletons, and Zelensky’s grip on power hasn’t exactly been squeaky clean.

During wartime, he’s kept his hold tight, delaying elections under the “wartime security” banner. It’s not illegal, but it’s the kind of democratic bending that’ll make your constitutional lawyer break out in hives.

The U.S. taxpayers might like a little more transparency before continuing to write checks with commas in them. The West’s patience with corruption is fraying, and Trump’s crew is the type to demand accountability by slashing budgets. It’s not going to be a popularity contest—Trump could ride in with an “America First” mandate and walk right into a very appealing target: cutting off Ukraine’s allowance until they prove they’re serious about cleaning up their act.

Prediction: The Curtain Falls, and We’ll All Pretend We Won

Here’s the part nobody wants to say out loud, but we’re going to anyway. The war ends because Putin gets a face-saving way out, Zelensky swallows the bitter pill of eastern Ukraine’s loss, and Trump steps up for a victory lap. There won’t be ticker-tape parades; just a sigh of relief and a collective look the other way.

With Trump in charge, expect a gritty, no-nonsense deal in the first six months. Trump gets the U.S. out of the Ukraine funding vortex, Putin holds onto the territories he’s already effectively claimed, and Zelensky pivots to rebuilding. And there it is, folks: the unglamorous, pragmatic end to a war where no one will say they lost, but no one really won, either.

But as one saga closes, another waits in the shadows. The Middle East, with its own Jersey yard sale gone bad—Gaza, Iran, Syria—stands as the next firestorm begging for resolution.

When Trump turns his sights there, expect more unconventional moves, big risks, and a lot of players reconsidering their hand. Sometimes, the best deals leave everyone a little unhappy, but that might be the only way forward.

Over and out.