Ukraine’s Spring Offensive 2025: What’s Next for Zelensky’s Forces?

That’s the thing about Americans: we develop “war fatigue” fairly quickly. The Russo-Ukraine war has been slogging on for 1,130 days as of this writing. Most of us, unless you do this kind of thing for a living, aren’t really keeping up with it anymore. We have no dog in the fight. It’s another “TV war” half a world away. Russians take land from Ukraine and blow up civilian buildings…Ukrainians launch cross-border attacks into Russia…lots of people die on both sides, and so it goes. We keep sipping our frappuccinos and lattes, some complaining about how much money we’ve sent to “those people.”

While the world scrolls past headlines about Ukraine and focuses on other crises, a brutal chess match is still unfolding in Eastern Europe. After two years of bloody fighting, Ukraine is standing at a critical turning point. The front lines have barely moved since last fall. Western politicians have shifted their attention elsewhere, and media coverage has dried up.

But make no mistake — this war isn’t over. It’s entering a fresh, violent phase, and what happens over the next few months could shape the future of Europe’s security for the next decade.

Where Things Stand Right Now

To understand where this fight is headed, you have to look at where things stand now. Ukraine’s summer offensive in 2024 threw everything it had at Russian positions but failed to land a knockout blow. Russian forces, battered but not broken, dug in deep and turned the conflict into a grinding war of attrition. Western military aid slowed to a trickle as U.S. and European support started to fade. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded by cleaning house — replacing top generals and military leadership in early 2025 to shake things up and regain momentum. Both sides have paid a steep price. Russia suffered over 420,000 casualties last year and lost thousands of tanks and armored vehicles. Ukraine, for its part, burned through equipment and manpower, fighting trench by trench. Neither side can claim victory. Morale has taken a hit on both ends of the battlefield. It’s a stalemate. 

What Ukraine’s Spring Offensive Will Look Like

So, what will Ukraine’s spring offensive look like? I don’t have a crystal ball, but I will give you my best guess based on the most up-to-date open-source intelligence. 

The terrain itself will be one of the biggest obstacles. Spring in Ukraine means thawing snow, rain, and mud — a nightmare for heavy armor and vehicle movement.

Zelensky’s forces have three likely targets. First is the Donbas region, where control remains hotly contested and politically significant for both Kyiv and Moscow. Second, the Zaporizhzhia corridor — a key land bridge connecting Russia to occupied Crimea. Cutting through there would be a game-changer, disrupting Russian logistics in the south. Third, Ukraine may attempt probing attacks toward Crimea itself, testing the defenses and looking for weaknesses without committing to a full-scale invasion.

Ukraine’s order of battle will be a mix of NATO-trained brigades, Territorial Defense Forces, and specialized units. They’ve become highly adept at integrating long-range precision artillery, U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles, and kamikaze drones into their operations. Western intelligence — satellite imagery, targeting data, and electronic surveillance — remains critical to their battlefield awareness. On the other side, Russian forces are not what they were two years ago, but they’re far from beaten. They’ve built dense networks of trenches, minefields, and defensive positions stretching hundreds of miles. Their manpower advantage remains intact, thanks to waves of conscripted soldiers and prison recruits. Units like the remnants of The Wagner Group, Kadyrov’s Chechen fighters, and local Russian militias still hold key positions, though at a high cost.

Wildcards That Could Change the Game

There are several wildcards that could flip the script in this fight. First is the use of Western F-16 fighter jets. Since Ukraine first received a handful of U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets in August 2024, these aircraft have become a force multiplier on the battlefield. What started as a defensive tool to protect Ukrainian airspace has now shifted into a potent offensive weapon. Ukrainian pilots are using these jets to strike deep into Russian-controlled territory, hitting ground positions, command posts, and key infrastructure with precision-guided munitions.

The F-16s are equipped with glide bombs like the SDB (Small Diameter Bomb) and JDAM-ER, which allow them to hit targets with pinpoint accuracy. Some pilots have even joked that they can now “drop a bomb through someone’s window” — and they’re not exaggerating.

On top of their strike capabilities, these aircraft are playing a key role in electronic warfare and reconnaissance. With upgraded systems provided by the U.S. Air Force, Ukraine’s F-16s can jam Russian radar, disrupt air defenses, and clear the skies for more aggressive follow-up attacks. The jets are flying multiple sorties a day from dispersed airfields, allowing Ukrainian forces to stay flexible and unpredictable on the battlefield.

That said, it’s not without risk. Ukrainian pilots still have to fly at low altitudes and get close to their targets, which exposes them to Russian air defenses, including surface-to-air missiles. Each mission requires careful planning and real-time intelligence to avoid costly losses. Another challenge is simple math — Ukraine currently operates only around 16 F-16s, far short of the 128 that President Zelensky has said are needed to achieve full air superiority.

Even with those limitations, the impact of these jets is clear. The arrival of the F-16s has shifted Ukraine’s air strategy from defense to offense. They’ve given Ukraine the ability to degrade Russian positions systematically and maintain pressure across contested regions like Kursk. As more aircraft and trained pilots arrive over the coming year, expect these jets to play an even bigger role in shaping the battlefield.

Second, Russia’s political situation. If protests over economic hardship grow inside Russia, Putin’s control could start to crack — and that will directly affect the front lines. Third, Russia’s foreign backers. Iran has already supplied drones, and China has quietly provided technology and economic support. If that pipeline grows, Russia’s war machine will keep grinding. Finally, the biggest variable may be U.S. politics. The Trump administration has prioritized achieving a ceasefire and lasting peace. Recent talks have focused on measures to prevent strikes on energy facilities, ensuring safe navigation of the Black Sea, and facilitating prisoner exchanges. Many in the European community fear the U.S. approach may undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty and security interests. 

Why This Matters — And What’s at Stake

The stakes couldn’t be higher. This isn’t just about Ukraine reclaiming its territory. It’s about how wars will be fought in the future. Drones, cyber operations, and information warfare are being tested on a massive scale right now. The war is also a preview of what a Russia-NATO confrontation looks like without Western troops directly in the fight. If Ukraine’s spring offensive stalls, Western unity will likely start to fracture. If Ukraine breaks through and regains significant territory, Russia could face political turmoil, forcing Putin to the negotiating table. 

Closing Shot

The headlines might have moved on for many, but this war is about to flare back up in the mud and blood of Ukraine’s fields. Pay attention. What happens this spring isn’t just about Kyiv or Moscow — it’s about the future of warfare and who gets to shape the next global order.