HIMARS played a significant role in destroying Russian logistics, allowing for crucial ZSU victories in Kharkiv and Kherson, which led to infighting among Russian generals and surprisingly influential mini-bloggers. When Ukraine partially destroyed the Kerch Bridge on Vladimir Putin’s birthday, it was a damning psychological and strategic blow that started to collapse Putin’s strongman aura, allowing for Prigozhin to start making his presence known to Russian society.

Wagner and the Ministry of Defense Never Got Along

Wagner’s popularity has always been known in the shadows as they conducted Russia’s “dirty work” in Syria and several African nations with military juntas. The group’s popularity would skyrocket as they made gains in capturing Soledar and Bakhmut in 2023—the only two victories Russia has achieved since the late spring of 2022.

Wagner would state they suffered significant casualties in both battles and didn’t receive logistical support from the Russian MOD, despite several conventional military units supporting their offensives. Prigozhin’s slights towards the MOD, particularly at Defense Minister Shoigu and the overall commander of Russian Forces, Gerasimov, led to months of empty hostile rhetoric towards each other.

Vladimir Putin had always ruled Russia by having multiple factions conflicting with each other, but at a low level, the state security services could control. By allowing factions to conflict with each other, particularly in war or a tragedy, Putin could always escape criticism from the general public by blaming one of the factions that were part of the internal squabble.

The Ukraine invasion would show these factions infighting, but at a level Putin could monitor and quell it before it became a significant escalation. Putin would host the frustrated military bloggers in the Kremlin and have the FSB mend conflicts between Kadyrov, his MOD, and Wagner. Nevertheless, the more Prigozhin became a media darling and popular with the hardliners with his grotesque executions and victories in the Donbas, the more ambitious he would become.

The Battle of Bakhmut Was the Spark

The Battle of Bakhmut was the most brutal conventional battle the European continent had seen since the Second World War. Wagner had taken part in ten months of continuous assaults from August 2022 to May 2023, taking significant casualties for incremental gains day by day.

In the late winter, when Wagner captured Soledar, the flanks of Bakhmut had become more critical, and the ZSU defenses would slowly collapse. Nonetheless, Zelensky would order his forces to continuously hold the city, even when some Western officers asked Kyiv to focus more on the counteroffensive preparations.

Wagner would employ convicts in suicidal frontal assaults to move forward and pinpoint Ukrainian artillery fire for counter-battery effects. Scorched earth tactics led to a shell shortage, exacerbating the conflict between Wagner and the MOD.

Prigozhin would conduct even more scathing interviews and blogs during the battle against Shoigu and Gerasimov, but Putin, perhaps out of arrogance, ignored this. Eventually capturing Bakhmut in late May, Prigozhin announced his forces would leave the city to regular Russian Forces to defend and “return” to their lucrative black market operations in Africa.

Yevgeny’s statements would become a diversion as he now saw Russia’s leadership as “traitorous” and out of touch with the realities on the ground in Ukraine. According to Wagner’s Telegram posts and Prigozhin’s claims, they lost over 20,000 fighters in the city, and this was just their conservative estimate.

Some of the longtime mercenaries that served with Yevgeny since day one were killed, which set him into a rage. The Battle of Bakhmut sparked growing internal conflict akin to the SS-Wehrmacht in World War Two.

When Central Authority is Weakened, Civil War is Inevitable

The rule of law throughout history is when central authority is weakened in a state full of various mercenaries and militias. Eventually, one of the factions will make their move.

In the ancient period, the Roman Empire would fall due to usurpations and civil wars, which weakened their empire to the point where foreign enemies could take advantage of internal disputes. The Sack of Constantinople in 1204 occurred by mercenaries (Crusaders) that the Angeloi Dynasty employed.

The lack of central authority in countries such as Yemen, Lebanon, Mali, Libya, Somalia, Bosnia, and Afghanistan would lead to various wars and conflicts that, to this day, haven’t been truly settled.

Russia is a nation comprised of factions and hardliners that have only been kept under a tight fist by the various hardliners who ruled over the nation since its inception. Whenever the strongman in Russia looks weak, the country is ripe for either civil war or revolution, as seen with the events of 1905 and 1917.

Tsar Nicholas II had gambled on wars he should’ve never brought the Russian general public into, such as the Russo-Japanese War and World War One. The more Nicholas’ credibility and strongman aura went out the window, the more demonstrations, mutinies, and conflicts ensued.

Arguably, Russia’s last “Tsar,” Vladimir Putin, a self-proclaimed “Peter the Great,” is now following in the footsteps of Nicholas II. Surrounded by hardliners and living with fear and paranoia, Putin led his nation into an unprovoked perpetual war in Ukraine since 2014, amassing over 200,000 casualties and not achieving any of his initial military objectives.

The longer the war, the more out of touch Putin became with his officers and various factions, akin to how Nicholas II didn’t calculate the lowering morale of his soldiers and conscripts in 1917. With most of Russia’s military in Ukraine, one of those hardliners, Prigozhin, now looks to strike for the throne.

What Comes Next

At the current pace, Wagner has advanced and consolidated in Rostov and Voronezh, and the PMC has cut off the main two logistical hubs to Russian Forces in Ukraine. Reportedly having the support of the locals and convicts they released in those regions, the group is now amassing a large force to challenge the Kremlin.

There have been several prominent flights out of the country, with the whereabouts of the Russian leadership currently being unknown. By the time this article is published, Wagner Forces could be on the outskirts of Moscow or inside the capital.

Whoever wins between the factions, another Great Purge on the level of Stalin’s could ensue. Many Russian Forces, governors, and Duma members did not stop Wagner’s rhetoric or actions and sometimes supported them. Putin could now be even more paranoid and won’t know who to trust. It is chaos.

A victory for Putin against Wagner would see the aftermath of mass purges in the Duma, military bloggers, intelligentsia, and officers who supported the mercenaries and did nothing to stop them. Even more mysterious murders of journalists by Putin’s FSB could become more frequent—with the potential of more overseas operations akin to the Salisbury attacks in London.

A victory for Wagner would see Prigozhin executing all officers, bloggers, journalists, Duma members, governors, and FSB agents loyal to Putin who criticized his forces. With Wagner’s history of executions with sledgehammers, gruesome deaths could become more frequent under him.

Nevertheless, Western intelligence agencies must prepare for all contingencies. One paranoid President could become even more trigger-happy with a nuclear football, or a barbaric warlord commanding Wagner could be in control of those vast stockpiles.

Time will tell.

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** Read more about Russia’s Shadow Army here.