Ukraine, Donbass War update: Signs of escalation

Russia’s hybrid military forces mounted 24 attacks on Ukrainian Forces positions in the Donbas region in the last 24 hours, with one Ukrainian soldier killed in action and another three wounded in action.

“One Ukrainian soldier was killed and another three were wounded in the past day. According to intelligence reports, two occupiers were killed and another five were wounded,” said the press center of Ukraine’s Joint Forces Operation (JFO).

Russian occupation forces opened aimed fire from grenade launchers of various types, heavy machine guns, and small arms as they attacked the Ukrainian potions in the towns of Avdiyivka and Krasnohorivka. The following villages also came under enemy fire: Krymske, Novozvanivka, Troyitske, Luhanske, Pisky, Slavne, Taramchuk, Berezove, Novomykhailivka, Starohnativka, Vodiane, and Shyrokyne.

So there are indeed reports coming out of East Ukraine, within the Donbass region, as the fighting is starting to pick up. This is something that I suggested would happen after Russia’s behaviour in the Azov Sea last week. I guess the big question is will the fighting return to its earliest days of 2014-2015.

I can quite possibly see that the fighting will indeed get more intense over the next couple months. But at the same time — due to weather conditions within the region — I honestly believe that the intensity of the fighting will be very little. Indeed both sides will be waiting for early spring to arrive before launching any serious assaults?

The reason I leave a question mark at the end of that sentence is that this is Ukraine we are talking about! In my time and my experience within the Donbass region, we cannot sit back here in the West and make our observations or predictions of what might happen. The soldiers down there on both sides could make a move at any moment, due to the tension being so dramatically high within the area.

Also, we should take into consideration just how close the proximities are between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatist forces. At some points across the Ukrainian front line, the proximity can be as little as 150m. In fact, in some cases, I have heard to be less than 100m. That much tension in the close proximity… I mean really, in one second the situation can change and we can go from a stalemate to a fully fledged conventional fight. With artillery, tanks, mechanised infantry, light infantry, special forces, special operations, snipers etc. — I mean, the list goes on and on and on…

I do pray and hope for the guys down there in those trenches during the very cold and troubling times are able to remain calm and collected. But if they’re indeed forced into a fight then once again I wish them all best! I also hope that we the West will be there to support them in their struggles against a very aggressive enemy.