The People’s Republic of China has begun a new round of aggression around Taiwan, stating their navy will conduct searches of ships in the strait. The move is seen as highly provocative, and Taiwan’s Coast Guard sent notices to any vessel to contact them if harassed by the PLA.
Beijing’s new round of aggression follows their geopolitical dispute over the sovereignty of Taiwan amid Taipei’s growing relations with the United States. Mirroring Xi Jinping’s determination to unite the Republic, even if it comes to force, shows the need to prepare for all scenarios.
Xi Jinping and the One China Policy
Xi Jinping, the Communist Party Chairman, is determined to thrust China to the forefront of geopolitics. He would have to upend the United States through a more comprehensive and pragmatic foreign policy or confrontation to do this.
The ultimate prize for Xi to upend the United States would be the reunification of Taiwan with mainland China, even by military force. On Beijing’s constitution, there is a clause to unite the isle through any means necessary, and for the ambitious party head, this looks to be his grand achievement.
Why Is Xi Becoming More Aggressive Over Taiwan?
Xi has been embroiled in China’s uncertain future compared to his predecessor, Hu Jintao. The pandemic response has come under international scrutiny. One such case included a high-rise fire that killed dozens as citizens could not escape and were locked in due to China’s brutal Covid laws.
Despite the Belt and Road initiative, economic progress has stagnated, and China is facing one of the world’s fastest demographic collapses. The lack of jobs for the younger population has led to the youth emigrating to Western countries, and the world witnessed his party dispute with the Hu Jintao faction.
With any strongman, war is the best way to distract a population from internal problems. Akin to Putin, Saddam, Khomeini, and autocrats in history, Xi’s way out of these situations that threaten his undisputed power is through war, and the capture of Taiwan could be his answer.
China Will Try to Bait Taiwan
To enact a casus belli to justify the annexation of Taiwan, China will look to provoke a physical response through provocative means. Akin to their artificial isle build-up in the South China Sea, Beijing looks to provoke East Asian nations and see how far they can test the limits of red lines.
Incursions over Taiwan’s airspace are at an all-time high, and Xi’s bullying tactics won’t fade soon. The US Navy and Taiwan will have to continue to set the tempo on deterrence and strength of force and let China falter on its imperial ambitions rather than take their bait.
Growing Relations with Taiwan
The US government has prepared for all scenarios of China’s provocative stance and has enhanced relations with Taipei. Previous House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the nation in 2022, showing China’s unwillingness to get itself into a direct conflict with America, even when they set non-existent red lines. Current House Speaker Kevin McCarthy also hosted Taiwan’s president this April.
Washington prepared a $10 billion security package for the isle nation in December and continues to fund its defense. Taipei has also enacted measures that have turned the isle into a military fortress. If China were to invade, its military would suffer heavy casualties like the Russian military in Ukraine.
The Best Offense is a Great Defense
To not fall into China’s trap but prepare for a potential conflict, the United States must continue rapidly returning to its conventional warfare strategies. Branches such as the Marine Corps and Navy must enhance their amphibious capabilities in the Pacific.
China has examined the pros and cons of relations regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The pros have seen Putin distract the world with a war that seemingly has no way out for the Kremlin. Beijing has extensively studied the war and the American response that could potentially happen.
Russia’s domino effects of the invasion have hit Beijing negatively. The cons being the world will not allow territorial annexation anymore, to where even Beijing refuses to recognize Russia’s “new” contact lines in fear of Taiwan’s recognition. The Chinese military, unlike Russia, will have to face off against the US Seventh Fleet and potentially two other Carrier Strike Groups in the Pacific.
Regarding Taiwan, both Taipei and Washington must start setting their own rules and regulations and not let Beijing dictate actions in the Pacific. Akin to how Putin would not stop until he was forcibly put in check, Xi will continue to push red lines and gamble to test the coalition of the willing.
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