85% of Ukrainians want the war to end with Ukraine regaining control of the territory seized in 2014.
The plan of the Ukrainian military is to push south, cutting off Russian supply lines, by coming down from the east side of the Dnipro River and then reaching the dam that provides 85% of Crimea’s fresh water.
The military effort to undermine the impregnability of Crimea is still in its infancy. However, on October 7, Ukrainian special forces struck the heavily guarded 19-kilometer Kerch Strait bridge, a symbol of Russia’s annexation and a near-mystical reunification of Russia with the birthplace of the Russian Orthodox church.
With its railway line and water pipes, the bridge connecting Crimea to Russia was a significant engineering feat that Putin completed after three years of labor. Because of the damage, Russian supply routes have slowed but not been terminated. Kherson and surrounding areas are supplied primarily by Russia via this route.
Saki airbase in Novofedorivka was struck by six explosions on August 9. In November, blasts hit Russia’s most extensive Crimean military base near Dzhankoi. The people of Crimea are concerned about what ammunition dump will blow up next, based on the number of people recently arrested for aiding the enemy. Moscow is also concerned about Atesh, the Crimean resistance group.
The Kakhovka dam provides 85% of Crimea’s water supply and is a critical Ukrainian target.
Senior presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak suggested that a war crimes tribunal should be held in Crimea to commemorate the fact that the troubles in Crimea started and should also finish there. Ukrainian forces should be on the peninsula by the end of December, Volodymyr Havrylov, a deputy defense minister, said.
Petro Poroshenko, the former Ukrainian president, suggested a new Yalta conference might be held there in 2019, replicating the Yalta conference of 1945, which laid the groundwork for the post-World War II world order.
So, is the capture of Crimea feasible or even wise? British military officials also point out Crimea’s vulnerabilities, including its reliance on mainland Ukraine for water. In early February 2022, Russia captured the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam in southern Ukraine. The reservoir behind the Kakhovka dam allows water to flow down the 250-mile North Crimean canal, built in the Soviet era to supply fresh water from the Dnipro River to arid southern Ukraine and Crimea.
Between 2014 and 2018, the canal went dry. The Ukrainian government said that Russia had constructed a concrete dam across the watercourse, significantly hindering irrigation, crop production, and drinking water across Crimea. Due to the Russian invasion in February, Tavriisk, where the dam had been erected, was reached by Russian troops, who then destroyed the dam and released 1.7m cubic meters of water from the Dnipro into Crimea. As a result, over 80% of Crimean agricultural land was lost, making it impossible to grow rice and other crops.
British officials believe regaining Ukrainian control over the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant and the North Crimean canal is feasible and desirable.
The US military is unnerved by talk of an offensive that would expel Russia’s 30,000 troops from Crimea. General Mark Milley, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, says that “the probability of that happening any time soon is not high, militarily.”
Ukrainian diplomats privately acknowledge that fear of escalation in Washington and European capitals are holding back the supply of long-range artillery weapons needed to finish the job, including the capture of Crimea.
European diplomats acknowledge that Crimea has a unique status. The Soviet leadership transferred Crimea to Ukraine in 1954, and most of its people were Russian; many were navy retirees from the Black Sea.
No reliable opinion surveys have been taken since the occupation. According to a leaked document, only a third of the population voted to unite with Russia in the initial annexation referendum in 2014. The economy in Crimea has fared well since then, and over 300,000 Russians have moved there. Many pro-Ukrainian activists and Crimean Tatars have once again been forced out. Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna of Ukraine stated, “Crimeans are now a totally distinct people than they were eight years ago.” Crimeans have been sealed off from the world media for almost a decade.
Rather than ending in glory, a bloody prolongation of the war to free a population who may not seek liberation would represent an inglorious end to the Ukrainian campaign.
Some Ukrainian diplomats say that, even if the southern offensive militarily isolates the peninsula, it may be beneficial to proceed slowly. As an option, it might be better to try to reopen negotiations with Russia rather than invade through the swampy Syvash or Rotten Sea, both of which have relatively narrow land approaches owing to the tides.
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