The familiar specter of black flags once again flutters on the horizon. As the US contemplates the future of its military presence in Iraq, a chilling reality emerges: the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is clawing its way back.

According to the US Central Command (CENTCOM), the number of ISIS attacks in Syria and Iraq has doubled compared to the previous year, with the group claiming responsibility for 153 attacks in the first half of 2024 alone.

This resurgence coincides with a tense regional landscape.

Tensions escalated earlier this year when Iran-backed groups launched a series of drone attacks on US bases across Iraq and Syria, believed to be retaliation for US support of Israel in the Gaza conflict.

While those attacks subsided after a US counterstrike, they highlight the complex web of regional interests at play.

“The increase in attacks indicates ISIS is attempting to reconstitute following several years of decreased capability,” said CENTCOM in a statement posted on Wednesday, July 17, via X (formerly Twitter).

A Lingering Threat: ISIS 2.0

From Territorial Caliphate to Shadowy Networks: Though ISIS lost control of vast swathes of territory in 2014 after US-backed campaigns, the group has adapted.

Sleeper cells remain active, particularly in remote areas. These cells exploit local grievances and the power vacuum of regional instability to launch attacks.

The Numbers Don’t Lie: The doubling of attacks in Syria and Iraq compared to the previous year is a stark reminder of the group’s resurgence.

ISIS claimed responsibility for 153 attacks in the first half of 2024 alone.

Further complicating the security situation, a recent drone attack targeted Ain al-Assad airbase in Iraq, a key location housing US-led coalition forces.

Thankfully, Iraqi air defenses intercepted one drone before it reached the base, while the other detonated within the perimeter without causing casualties or damage.

US Withdrawal Talks: A Delicate Balance

The US currently maintains a force of roughly 2,500 troops in Iraq, tasked with supporting Iraqi security forces and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in their fight against ISIS remnants.

However, a growing sentiment in Iraq calls for the US withdrawal.

Iraqi officials are currently engaged in talks with the US on winding down the mission of the US-led coalition.

General Michael Erik Kurilla, commander of CENTCOM, emphasized the continued threat posed by a resurgent ISIS.

“The continued pursuit of the approximately 2,500 ISIS fighters at large across Iraq and Syria is a critical component to the enduring defeat” of the group, he stressed.

US counter-terrorism efforts have yielded some results, with joint operations alongside Iraqi and Kurdish forces resulting in the deaths of 44 ISIS operatives and the arrest of 166 so far this year.

However, the question remains: can Iraqi forces effectively contain a resurgent ISIS without continued US support? The answer could hinge on several factors.

Effectiveness of Iraqi Security Forces

First, the effectiveness of Iraqi security forces themselves. Years of war have strained their resources and capabilities. Addressing corruption and improving training will be crucial for them to shoulder the burden of independent operations.

Iraqi Security Forces Training
Iraqi Security Forces Training. (DVIDS)

Level of Cooperation

Second, the level of cooperation between the Iraqi government and the Kurdish-led SDF. Their past disputes, particularly over disputed territories, have hindered the fight against ISIS. Finding common ground and fostering a unified front will be vital.

Future of the US-led Coalition

Finally, the future of the US-led coalition. A complete withdrawal could create a security vacuum that ISIS would exploit. A potential solution lies in a phased withdrawal, with a continued US presence in a training and advisory capacity.

Final Thoughts

The talks between Iraq and the US hold the key to regional stability.

Striking a balance between Iraqi aspirations for self-reliance and the need to contain a resurgent ISIS threat will be a delicate dance.

With the shadow of ISIS looming large, the stakes couldn’t be higher. The outcome will not only shape the future of Iraq and Syria but also reverberate across the volatile Middle East.

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