South Korean and the United States intelligence points to North Korea allegedly making preparations to begin tests on another intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), possibly the Hwasong-17, in April, said government sources to a South Korean domestic media outlet on March 14.

“Though we can’t say definitively when a missile will be launched, we have been keeping close tabs on the possibility,” said an anonymous government source to Yonhap News Agency. They suggest that weather conditions and other variables may alter the schedule of North Korea’s launch. However, according to North Korean Studies Scholar Ahn Chan-il, these tests may happen around April 15, Kim Il Sung’s birthday, as North Korea tends to commemorate important events with military parades or launches.

North Korea is expected to fire its ICBMs from a transporter erector launcher (TEL) at a lower trajectory. This makes detection through spy satellites more difficult compared to ICBMs fired using a launchpad.

The news comes after the two countries claimed that North Korea test-launched ICBMs using its new ICBM system last February 26 and March 5, which were concealed and labeled as reconnaissance satellite development tests when they were actually preliminary launches to test parts of an ICBM. The test launch reportedly did not demonstrate the ICBM range. Furthermore, it was unclear whether the tests used all stages of the missile, although reports have surfaced that only one stage was activated.

“The purpose of these tests, which did not demonstrate ICBM range, was likely to evaluate this new system before conducting a test at full range in the future, potentially disguised as a space launch,” Department of Defense Spokesman John Kirby said.

The country has not tested an ICBM since 2017; however, it did test an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) named Hwasong-12, which was also first revealed in 2017 last January 30. 2017 proved to be a major breakthrough for North Korea Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un to show his military can allegedly threaten the US mainland. Experts believe that the last two suspected ICBM component tests involved the Hwasong-17 ICBM, which is said to be the largest road-mobile missile. The United Nations currently prohibit North Korea from testing these ballistic missiles; however, it seems that North Korea has not been at all deterred by it.

Increasing pressure from the North will test the character and political will of incoming South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, who is taking his office next May. The soon-to-be President is a conservative and has committed to promoting an aggressive brand of foreign policy that will deepen the US-South Korean alliance. Yoon has also vowed to buy Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile defense systems to shoot certain North Korean missiles down. However, it is important to note that THAAD is mainly used for intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs); however, it can be equipped with a forward sensor for ICBMs and can intercept threats at lower altitudes.

“Kim can both set the tone for inter-Korean dynamics and gauge the incoming Yoon administration’s threshold for North Korean provocations,” said Soo Kim, a policy analyst with Rand Corp. “And depending on Yoon’s response, Kim will either temper or dial-up his aggression.”