The Russian Federation is the last modern empire that was never truly Balkanized and forced to give up its colonies. Indeed, Moscow held brutal crackdowns in the early 90s and fought brutal wars in Chechnya to keep as many vassals under their fold for as long as possible.

Nevertheless, gross miscalculations over imperial ambitions by invading Ukraine put Russia on the verge of another 1917/1990 scenario. Like the collapse of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union, there were violent wars and ethnic land disputes stemming from Moscow’s hold over those nations. The international community must prepare for the worst if Russia veers towards another great collapse.

Renewed Fighting in Syria

Russia’s diminishing military capabilities isn’t only taking effect in Ukraine and Syria. Propping up Bashar al-Assad to have a permanent presence in the Eastern Mediterranean, Russia’s air power turned the tide decisively for the Syrian regime.

Comfortably consolidating his family’s hereditary rule, Assad can suffer the consequences of a depleted Russian army. Over the past year and a half, Russian Forces garrisoned in Syria have been recalled to Ukraine as severe casualties have depleted the invasion force. Even General Suvorikin, who once commanded Russia’s intervention in Syria, was placed to be the overall commander in Ukraine before his demotion and arrest.

The lack of Russian Forces in Syria has backfired for Assad, as Israeli warplanes reign supreme with constant airstrikes against Iranian-affiliated targets. Moscow also withdrew several anti-aircraft batteries from the Middle East nation to Ukraine.

A collapse of Russia would directly affect Assad’s Syria, which owes its debt to Russian military intervention.

With Kurds, who look to secede in the East potentially, the Turkish military and various rebels in the North, and various Israeli incursions, Assad’s palace seat may not be comfortable as he wished it would be.