The Russian Federation is the last modern empire that was never truly Balkanized and forced to give up its colonies. Indeed, Moscow held brutal crackdowns in the early 90s and fought brutal wars in Chechnya to keep as many vassals under their fold for as long as possible.
Nevertheless, gross miscalculations over imperial ambitions by invading Ukraine put Russia on the verge of another 1917/1990 scenario. Like the collapse of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union, there were violent wars and ethnic land disputes stemming from Moscow’s hold over those nations. The international community must prepare for the worst if Russia veers towards another great collapse.
Renewed Fighting in Syria
Russia’s diminishing military capabilities isn’t only taking effect in Ukraine and Syria. Propping up Bashar al-Assad to have a permanent presence in the Eastern Mediterranean, Russia’s air power turned the tide decisively for the Syrian regime.
Comfortably consolidating his family’s hereditary rule, Assad can suffer the consequences of a depleted Russian army. Over the past year and a half, Russian Forces garrisoned in Syria have been recalled to Ukraine as severe casualties have depleted the invasion force. Even General Suvorikin, who once commanded Russia’s intervention in Syria, was placed to be the overall commander in Ukraine before his demotion and arrest.
The lack of Russian Forces in Syria has backfired for Assad, as Israeli warplanes reign supreme with constant airstrikes against Iranian-affiliated targets. Moscow also withdrew several anti-aircraft batteries from the Middle East nation to Ukraine.
A collapse of Russia would directly affect Assad’s Syria, which owes its debt to Russian military intervention.
With Kurds, who look to secede in the East potentially, the Turkish military and various rebels in the North, and various Israeli incursions, Assad’s palace seat may not be comfortable as he wished it would be.
Russia’s Various Enclaves
Stemming from prior Soviet border manipulations and various Russian invasions since the early 90s, Moscow has erected multiple enclaves in the heart of Europe, Georgia, and Moldova. Several brutal wars in Georgia, an ongoing conflict in Transnistria, and ethnic cleansing in Kaliningrad gave Moscow a foothold through proxy states.
Akin to Syria, the Russian Ministry of Defense has recalled various units stationed in the enclaves of Kaliningrad, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia to Ukraine, and they have taken severe casualties. The Russian MOD, like Syria, has prioritized the fate of its military over other geopolitical sectors.
Depleted manpower in the various enclaves could spell trouble for Moscow. Ukraine has offered to dislodge the increasingly problematic Russian garrison in Transnistria, and Romania has stepped up its military capabilities, which could help stabilize their sister nation of Moldova.
Kaliningrad is now increasingly under pressure. With Sweden’s imminent NATO ascension, the enclave is now surrounded by NATO members. In a hypothetical war, Lithuania, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Latvia, Finland, Denmark, and Sweden can completely blockade the enclave through the air, land, and sea. Now that most of Kaliningrad’s home garrison has been liquidated in Ukraine, the enclave will be on edge.
Armenia-Azerbaijan
Armenia and Azerbaijan, which have been at open war for various periods over the past three decades, exemplify a conflict with the roots of Moscow’s border manipulations. The historically Armenian-majority Karabakh region was transferred to Azerbaijan by Josef Stalin during the early years of the Soviet Union.
After the USSR collapsed, both nations fought for control over the region, resulting in an Armenian victory. With support from Turkey and Israel, Azerbaijan forced Armenia and the unrecognized state of Artsakh to capitulate in 2020–but this did not stop the fighting.
Numerous ceasefire violations have occurred, with Russian peacekeepers doing little to mitigate the violence. Large-scale fighting also occurred when Azerbaijan invaded Armenia proper in September of 2022, resulting in hundreds of casualties on both sides.
Despite Armenia’s Prime Minister recognizing Karabakh as Azerbaijani territory in return for peace, there is little hope that this could last. Another renewed war full of war crimes and ethnic cleansing could ensue, and the international community must prepare contingencies in advance.
A Russian Oligarch Civil War
Vladimir Putin has enjoyed a relatively stable leadership with little pushback from dissidents thanks to the hardliners and oligarchs he has surrounded himself with over the past two decades. The war in Ukraine has not only put the Russian military on the brink of collapse but also Putin’s autocratic rule.
Lying to the general public and his inner circle over the casus belli of war has finally caught up with Putin. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, led a mutiny that nearly saw the mercenaries march on Moscow after the substantial casualties that took over a failing war.
Several generals affiliated with Wagner, such as Suvorikin, were detained by Russian intelligence, but the problems persisted. Major General Ivan Popov of the Southern Command was relieved of command and recorded a scathing message against the MOD for their lack of concern for Russia’s military’s numerous problems. The more Russia falters in its imperial wartime ambitions, the more likely generals and hardliners will openly criticize a war increasingly becoming a lost cause.
There are also other potential scenarios of civil strife in lieu of a potential Russian collapse, such as a renewed Chechen war and more clashes between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
Decades of overextending their land ambitions through several enclaves, overestimating their military capabilities, and lacking support amongst their allies have finally returned to haunt the Russian Federation. The war in Ukraine can become the third spark of collapse against Moscow for the third time over the past century, and the world must prepare for this domino effect.
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