During the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, NATO, the mural defensive alliance, and Russia have come close to blows with numerous threats by the Kremlin—sometimes nuclear. Over the past few months, Russia has adapted to electronic and signals hybrid warfare—particularly towards commercial aircraft of NATO members. This version of electronic warfare is not only a concern to the security apparatus of Europe but is also growingly dangerous and poses risks to the safety of civilian aircraft.
Current GPS Jamming
During the early spring, Finnish commercial airline Finnair reported suspending flights inbound to the Estonian city of Tartu due to jamming frequencies related to Russia.
Traficom, Finland’s transportation and communications agency, would state the jamming activities are a side effect of Russia’s attempts to disrupt drone activities, as ongoing surveillance between NATO members and support operations to Ukraine has been ongoing since the full-scale war.
Estonia’s foreign ministry would later summon and dress down the Russian ambassador over the disruption of flight and international regulations over commercial aircraft. Though Finnair flights have been indefinitely suspended towards Estonia, Finland has provided alternative routes that keep their commercial airlines safe from electronic warfare.
Continuous Hybrid Warfare
Tensions between Finland, Estonia, and Russia have always been turbulent due to past imperial transgressions by the latter, but relations have heightened in the last several years.
Akin to electronic warfare, Russia spends billions on informational and media warfare across various regions. The strategy helps pro-Russian governments come to power with Kremlin media or financial backing.
Currently, pro-Russian parties are gaining steam in Germany, Slovakia, Austria, Hungary, and the Netherlands, and they also hold influence in Italy, France, Bulgaria, and Romania. In hindsight, the Kremlin is banking on their connections coming into power to not only halt military aid to Ukraine but also to cause strife within NATO and the European Union.
Informational warfare also takes place in the global south, such as Latin America and Africa, where Putin attempts to gain favor from developing nations to whitewash his imperialist actions and motives.
Other forms of hybrid warfare also take place in the South Caucasus, Africa, and Eastern Europe by the Russian Federation. In the South Caucasus, manipulation by the Kremlin to consolidate a permanent foothold in the region on the backdrop of various wars between Armenia and Azerbaijan is ongoing.
In Africa, the Wagner Group and GRU are influencing and supplying Russian-backed juntas along the ‘coup belt.’ Here, Russia is attempting to upend French influence and install their neocolonial ambitions as African resources help fund the war in Ukraine through the black market.
Russia’s largest hybrid tactics occur in Eastern Europe, where Moscow frequently traffics migrants from the Middle East and Africa to the borders of Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, and Poland. Hoping to overwhelm Europe’s social systems through migration, Moscow wants to eventually prop up pro-Russian parties who use the guise of closed borders to gain power.
Russia is Preparing for the Long Game
Hoping to outlast Ukraine’s stockpiles and Western aid for a long time, Moscow looks to not only stretch out Ukrainian defense and logistics through various offensives but also to persuade the West towards a settlement on Russian terms.
To enact plans for favorable negotiations, Russia, an autocracy, will use hybrid methods to continue to sway Western public opinion on the war while maintaining a wartime economy that has not been seen since the 80s.
Currently, Russian military production is moving rapidly, and though the West could easily outproduce Russia, political bickering and lack of will is giving the Kremlin an advantage in the overall conflict. However, Europe has gradually stepped up with the Czech-sponsored shell initiative and major aid packages by the UK, Denmark, and others.
The United States, after seven months of backdoor politicking, has finally United against not only threats of Russia but also Iran and China, backing foreign aid packages for Israel and Taiwan, respectively, for the growing crisis.
Lessons from Electronic and Other Forms of Hybrid Warfare
The West long underestimated Russia’s current use of electronic, hybrid, and informational warfare, and due to this, the Kremlin uses a quiet advantage to further imperial ambitions. Despite not engaging in a direct war with NATO—for now, Moscow instead is actively using hybrid methods to destabilize the alliance.
Hybrid methods are ultimately helping Russia solely turn the tide of war in Ukraine to their favor, as the West has not hit the true panic button to become a willing coalition to back Kyiv thoroughly for as long as it takes.
Today, one could argue the collective West remains idle to a brewing threat that uses various hybrid means of warfare to continue causing strife, which benefits the overall geopolitical standing and furthers favorable negotiations for the Russian Federation. It is now up to world leaders and constituents to expand their scope and realize today’s threats.
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