SITREP: 31 OCT 2023 – The Israel-Gaza War Heats Up

Trouble in the Gaza Strip

The ongoing strife surrounding the Gaza Strip reveals a multi-faceted effort, with the Axis of Resistance aiming to undermine the Israeli political and military morale and eroding their willingness to initiate or sustain major operations within the region. The latest round of hostilities on October 30 saw Palestinian militias, spearheaded by Hamas’ al Qassem Brigades and PIJ’s Saraya al Quds, maintaining a consistent rate of indirect fire assaults into Israeli territories, similar to the previous day’s activities.

Israeli forces, on the flip side, orchestrated a route clearance operation, transitioning from the vicinity of Juhor ad Dik to the strategic Salah al-Din road in the Gaza Strip, albeit temporarily. This maneuver aligns with the broader Israeli military strategy of deploying compact units to seize “limited areas,” paving the way for subsequent reinforcement by larger forces and armored divisions.

The day’s military endeavors also witnessed action in the northwestern Gaza Strip, where the al-Qassem Brigades and the National Resistance Brigades (associated with the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine) purportedly confronted IDF units. Various munitions and tactics such as mortars, sniper fire, anti-tank weaponry, and machine guns were reportedly utilized by Palestinian factions to challenge IDF’s advancements around Beit Lahia and other ingress points into the Strip.

Hamas, through its media channels, continues to portray an image of Palestinian militants gaining the upper hand against the IDF, supposedly derailing the IDF’s operational objectives. Meanwhile, Israeli forces, demonstrating a phased approach, are cautiously advancing by capturing “limited areas” through small, agile forces to be followed by larger contingents.

A notable event unfolded on October 29, with a joint operation by Israeli special forces and Shin Bet personnel leading to the rescue of IDF Private Uri Magidish within the Gaza Strip. Orchestrated in a relatively secluded sector of the northern Gaza Strip, this operation was cited as being meticulously planned over several days by the Israeli defense apparatus, showcasing a glimpse into the intricate military dynamics enveloping the region.

War in the West Bank

In the midst of the Axis of Resistance’s strategy, a key objective has been to channel the focus of Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) towards the West Bank, ensuring their resources are anchored there. Following this narrative, on October 30, a significant IDF operation unfolded in Jenin, aimed at diminishing the capabilities of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) within the West Bank. This operation led to the elimination of Wiam Iyad Hanon, a high-ranking PIJ commander and the founding figure of the Jenin Battalion, which is seen as a collective of various militia factions predominantly aligned with the PIJ.

On the same day, there were reports of two instances where Palestinian militants employed improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in Jenin, with PIJ asserting that these IEDs inflicted damage on Israeli armored vehicles. The Critical Threats Project – Institute for the Study of War (CTP-ISW), however, could not independently corroborate the damage or casualty claims tied to these IED attacks.

The CTP-ISW has marked a notable uptick in Palestinian militant activities around Jenin in the preceding months. Back on October 13, PIJ declared its focus on targeting Israeli forces and establishments in the vicinity of Jenin. Additionally, in July 2023, PIJ’s local branch in Jenin revealed their possession of explosively formed penetrators (EFPs), a type of explosive designed in Iran and previously utilized against US forces in Iraq by Iranian-backed militias under Iranian guidance.

Furthermore, on October 30, three separate confrontations were recorded between Palestinian militants and IDF in the region, with IDF detaining 38 Hamas affiliates and 13 other militants, alongside weapon confiscation across the West Bank. Meanwhile, anti-Israel protests seemed to have dwindled in Ramallah, with only a single demonstration logged as opposed to three the day before. Despite the initiation of IDF’s ground incursions into the Gaza Strip on October 27, the West Bank hasn’t witnessed a significant surge in anti-Israel movements.

Lastly, Israel’s internal security service, Shin Bet, alerted the Israeli administration about the potential of escalating violence in the West Bank due to ongoing settler attacks. On October 30, the head of Shin Bet, Ronen Bar, emphasized the risk posed by increasing incidents of Israeli settlers assaulting Palestinians, which could potentially jeopardize the ongoing military operations. This concern was echoed by US administration officials who also voiced apprehensions regarding the uptick in settler violence.

The Golan Heights and Southern Lebanon

In a recent surge of tensions in the northern parts of Israel, various factions under the Axis of Resistance are orchestrating campaigns intending to divert Israel Defense Forces (IDF) resources and assets toward this region, laying the groundwork for subsequent offensives into northern Israel. The activities are marked by a series of assaults carried out by Iranian-aligned militants, chiefly among them being the Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and Saraya al Quds, the militant arm of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).

A notable series of events unfolded as ten incursions into Israel were executed by these militant groups. One significant incident involved Saraya al Quds militants infiltrating Hanita, a locale in northern Israel, an operation that led to the fatalities of two PIJ militants. Additionally, on October 30, LH launched a trio of anti-tank missile strikes targeting IDF stations in the northeastern part of Israel. This period also saw an array of seven mortar and rocket barrages directed at northern Israel by unidentified militants, eliciting retaliatory airstrikes and artillery barrages from the IDF against those attempting to unleash indirect fire into Israeli territory.

The collaboration between Iran, LH, and PIJ is underscored by the attack by PIJ, given the substantial backing provided by Tehran and LH to PIJ over many years in the form of financial, military, and training support. It’s highly plausible that LH, given its stronghold over southern Lebanon, facilitates operations by Palestinian militant factions like PIJ from this region in conjunction with other Iranian-aligned groups present there.

On the Syrian front, a unit of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) reportedly unleashed a pair of rockets into the Golan Heights on October 29, as per local Syrian media outlets. The aftermath saw retaliatory Israeli airstrikes targeting the SAA’s 112th Brigade situated near Nawa in southern Syria following the rocket incursions, which reportedly landed in an open field.

In an upcoming event, LH’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has a public address slated for November 3, as per LH’s media outlets. This is a development of interest as Nasrallah has remained silent on the Israel-Hamas conflict, with his last notable public presence being a strategic meeting with top-tier leaders of Hamas and PIJ in Beirut on October 25.

The Axis of Resistance

The Axis of Resistance, a proxy of Iran, is demonstrating its ability and readiness to escalate confrontations against the United States and Israel across various fronts, aiming to prepare for a possible regional war. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, comprised of Iranian-supported Iraqi militias, has acknowledged carrying out two distinct rocket attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria on October 30, with a total of 26 attacks since October 18.

On the same date, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq targeted the Conoco Mission Support Site, marking the third such attack since October 18. The attack was launched from an area in Deir ez Zor City controlled by Iranian-backed militias. Another rocket attack was executed on Ain al Asad airbase, totaling eight such attacks since October 18.

Brigadier General Esmail Ghaani, commander of the IRGC Quds Force, has been orchestrating Axis of Resistance operations against Israel from a joint operations center in Beirut since his arrival on October 20. This follows his visit to Syria on October 15, where he directed Iranian-affiliated militias to ready for a second front against Israel.

A report from the Syria-based Eye of Euphrates highlighted the roles of various Iranian-backed militias in attacks on US forces in the Middle East post-October 18. Senior IRGC Commander Hajj Askar, stationed in Syria, has coordinated these attacks with local IRGC commanders through a joint operations room in Sayyida Zainab, Rif Dimashq Province. Notably, Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al Haq were linked to at least one drone strike on al Tanf Garrison in eastern Syria. Iranian-backed Syrian Hezbollah militants, along with Iranian-affiliated groups, were reported to have launched rocket attacks on US forces at the Conoco Mission Support Site from locations within Deir ez Zor Province.

Vahid Jalal Zadeh, Iranian Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee Chairman engaged in discussions about the Israel-Hamas conflict with Russian parliamentarians in Moscow on October 30, urging Russia to join forces with Iran in countering Israeli actions against Palestinians. This dialogue followed a visit from Iranian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Ali Bagheri Kani to Moscow, where he met with senior Hamas and Russian officials.

Additionally, during the 10th Common Security and Lasting Peace Forum in Beijing on October 30, Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, Supreme Leader Military Affairs Adviser, and former IRGC Commander conversed with Belarusian Defense Minister Lieutenant General Viktor Khrenin about potential military cooperation. This conversation followed Khrenin’s visit to Tehran earlier, where discussions on defense industry cooperation, military attaches, and joint exercises took place. Safavi’s broader agenda at the forum aimed at fostering cultural, economic, and political ties while representing the “voice of the oppressed people of Gaza.”