SOFREP Daily: Fragile Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Tested, Russia Ramps Up Drone Assaults in Ukraine, China Suspends Top Military Official

Happy Friday! As we close out the week, here’s your essential update on the latest in defense and global affairs for November 29.

Fragile Ceasefire Tested as Israel and Hezbollah Trade Accusations

Just a day after a ceasefire aimed at ending over a year of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah came into effect, the truce is already being tested.

On Thursday, Israel launched an airstrike on a Hezbollah rocket storage site in southern Lebanon, claiming it was responding to breaches of the agreement.

Israeli officials also said they fired on “suspects” near the border, accusing Hezbollah of violating the deal.

Hezbollah and the Lebanese army fired back—figuratively—accusing Israel of breaking the ceasefire terms, with reports of tank fire hitting towns and fields in southern Lebanon, injuring at least two people.

The situation highlights how fragile the truce is, despite being brokered by the US and France as a rare diplomatic win in the region.

Under the ceasefire terms, both sides agreed not to launch offensive operations, and Israel has up to 60 days to withdraw troops from southern Lebanon. But with tensions high and accusations flying, it’s unclear whether this agreement will hold.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu isn’t taking any chances, warning the military to be ready for “intense war” if the ceasefire collapses.

Meanwhile, thousands of displaced Lebanese families are trying to return to their homes near the border, but curfews and Israeli military presence in the area make that nearly impossible.

The conflict has taken a heavy toll on both sides and while this ceasefire brings a brief pause, the path to lasting peace seems far off.

Ukrainian Cities Hit Hard as Russia Ramps Up Drone Assaults

Russia isn’t letting up on its relentless drone attacks against Ukraine, with overnight strikes injuring at least eight people and damaging homes in Kyiv and the Odesa region.

Ukraine’s air force reported Friday that out of the 132 drones launched, they managed to take down 88, while 41 were lost due to electronic warfare. One even flew back into Russian territory.

This is part of a broader surge in Russian assaults, with a record-breaking 188 drones launched earlier this week and a massive strike on Ukraine’s power grid on Thursday.

In Odesa, 13 residential buildings were damaged, and seven people were hurt.

The Commander of the Air Force, along with the Ministers of Internal Affairs and Energy, provided reports regarding the aftermath of the latest Russian strike targeting our energy infrastructure. In total, approximately 100 strike drones and over 90 missiles of various types were… pic.twitter.com/gClYnks7or

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) November 28, 2024

Meanwhile, in Kyiv, drone fragments struck buildings in two districts, injuring a security guard and leaving a pediatric clinic covered in rubble.

Despite the constant bombardment, Ukraine continues to push back, though the increasing scale of these attacks highlights the intense pressure Ukrainian cities are under.

As winter approaches, the situation grows even more critical, with both sides showing no signs of slowing down.

China Escalates Tensions Ahead of Taiwan Leader’s Pacific Tour

Things are heating up around Taiwan again as of Friday. In just 24 hours, Taiwan detected 41 Chinese military aircraft and ships near its territory, including 19 aircraft involved in a combat patrol.

This comes right before President Lai Ching-te’s stopover in Hawaii, part of a Pacific tour that’s already ruffled feathers in Beijing.

China isn’t happy about Lai’s trip, especially his planned meetings in the US and visits to Taiwan’s few remaining diplomatic allies in the Pacific.

Beijing sees Taiwan as part of its territory and opposes any moves that hint at international recognition of its sovereignty.

In response, China has ramped up its military activity near Taiwan, a routine tactic that’s becoming more frequent.

The defense ministry said it detected 41 Chinese military aircraft and ships around the nation ahead of a Hawaii stopover by President William Laihttps://t.co/Z0IdOW42AI
Photo: MND pic.twitter.com/Xgvfi9J4ic

— Taipei Times (@taipei_times) November 29, 2024

Taiwan also spotted a balloon near the island—marking the fourth one this week.

Experts predict that China might stage military exercises in reaction to Lai’s trip, though the scale will likely depend on what he says during his overseas meetings.

Lai’s Pacific tour is a rare opportunity for Taiwan to push back against Beijing’s pressure and reinforce its claim to sovereignty.

While these trips might seem symbolic, they give Taiwan a moment on the world stage and a chance to strengthen its ties with allies, even as China continues to flex its military muscle.

China Suspends Top Military Official Amid Corruption Probe

China has suspended Miao Hua, a top-ranking military official, as he faces a corruption investigation.

Miao, who serves as the director of the Political Work Department for the powerful Central Military Commission (CMC), is one of the top figures overseeing the country’s massive military under President Xi Jinping.

This Thursday announcement is just the latest shakeup in China’s defense leadership.

Earlier this year, two former defense ministers were also ousted over corruption allegations, signaling Xi’s continued push to root out misconduct—or at least ensure loyalty within the ranks.

While these investigations might cause international buzz, experts say they likely won’t rattle Xi’s control over the military.

Miao’s role in the CMC outranks the defense minister’s position, making this investigation even more significant. His suspension comes as China’s defense establishment grapples with a history of corruption that dates back to the 1990s when military officers were allowed to run businesses during the country’s economic reforms.

Miao Hua, a member of Central Military Commission (CMC) and director of CMC’s Political Work Department, is suspended from his post due to suspected serious violations of discipline, CCTV reported. https://t.co/CTwFrTC8UZ pic.twitter.com/x77SY4OGlJ

— Global Times (@globaltimesnews) November 28, 2024

According to experts, it’s hard for anyone who rose through the ranks in that era to come out without some skeletons in their closet.

Meanwhile, China’s Defense Ministry dismissed reports that current Defense Minister Dong Jun is under investigation, calling the claims “sheer fabrication.”

When pressed on the matter, a ministry spokesperson gave a wry shrug, deflecting further questions.

For now, all eyes are on Miao’s investigation and what it says about the ongoing shakeups in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

Germany Sends Patriots to Protect Poland’s Supply Routes

Germany is stepping up to help Poland and Ukraine by offering to send Patriot air defense systems starting in January.

These systems, as announced on Thursday, are meant to protect key logistics hubs that supply weapons, vehicles, and ammo to Ukraine as they defend against ongoing Russian attacks.

It’s a big move to secure those critical supply lines and reinforce NATO airspace.

This isn’t Germany’s first Patriot deployment to Poland—Berlin sent three units last year after a stray missile caused a deadly blast in a Polish village.

That mission ended in November, but Defense Minister Boris Pistorius says this new deployment, which could last up to six months, is just as vital for the region’s security.

Germany offers re-deployment of Patriot air defence units to Poland https://t.co/E7Muyp5gMQ pic.twitter.com/HruDvE69D6

— Reuters (@Reuters) November 28, 2024

Poland’s Defense Minister, Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz, gave the plan a thumbs-up, calling it a strong show of solidarity.

Meanwhile, Berlin is coordinating the details with Poland, NATO, and other allies.

With fewer Patriots in Germany’s arsenal than during the Cold War, this move highlights how far Berlin is going to support Ukraine and its allies during these tense times.

Chad Ends Defense Pact with France, Shifts Military Ties

Chad announced Thursday that it was ending its defense agreement with France, marking a big shift in its military ties with the former colonial power.

The decision comes just hours after French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot visited the country.

Chad’s government described the move as a “historic turning point,” saying it reflects the nation’s maturity and sovereignty.

While Chad still hosts about 1,000 French troops, it’s clear that the days of close military cooperation are coming to an end.

France has relied on Chad as its last stronghold in the Sahel after being pushed out of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.

#Senegal & #Chad announced the same day to move on from close military cooperation with their key security partner France. Chad is putting an end to defense agreement while Senegal’s president says French soldiers will soon have to leave the country. #Sahel pic.twitter.com/K0maGGXEln

— Rida Lyammouri (@rmaghrebi) November 29, 2024

Chad’s President Mahamat Idriss Deby has also been exploring closer ties with Russia, although no major agreements have been reached yet.

This decision highlights growing shifts in African nations asserting their independence from old colonial powers.

It also follows similar sentiments from Senegal, where officials recently called for the closure of French military bases.

With regional tensions and threats like Boko Haram still looming, Chad’s move could have big implications for security in the Sahel.

Ex-British Soldier Spies for Iran, Caught After Daring Prison Escape

Daniel Khalife, a former British soldier whose bold escape from a London prison made headlines, has been convicted of spying for Iran on Thursday.

The 23-year-old was found guilty of passing sensitive military information, including the names of special forces officers, to Iranian intelligence.

While Khalife claimed he was trying to become a double agent for Britain—an idea he admitted came from watching the TV show Homeland—prosecutors weren’t buying it.

Khalife’s defense lawyer called his aspirations to be a spy naïve and more “Scooby Doo” than “007.”

Khalife had reached out to Iranian contacts as a teenager, passing along classified material and later offering his services to MI6, Britain’s foreign intelligence agency.

Prosecutors presented damning evidence, including notes and surveillance footage, showing he intentionally gathered and shared restricted documents.

Former British soldier Daniel Khalife, who escaped from Wandsworth Prison, has been found guilty of spying for Iran

Full story ➡️ https://t.co/8ItYwYqVBr pic.twitter.com/NFsZqXQvNx

— Sky News (@SkyNews) November 28, 2024

The case had flown under the radar until Khalife’s September 2023 prison escape, where he strapped himself under a delivery truck and evaded authorities for three days before being caught.

His escape highlighted serious flaws in the UK’s aging prison system, prompting an ongoing inquiry.

Khalife, who joined the Army at 16, had access to sensitive military units and even participated in a NATO exercise in Texas before his covert activities were uncovered.

Prosecutors argued that his actions endangered military personnel and jeopardized national security.

Despite his claims of a spy-worthy plan, the court didn’t buy the story—and his escape stunt only added to the drama.

Sources: AP News, AFP News, Reuters