Against the backdrop of emerging alliances, several different conflicts, and security guarantees being reneged, the Middle East is going through a geopolitical shift that has the entire world focused. In place of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, various nations in the region have reassessed their foreign policies, with either a growing detachment from traditional superpowers, such as the United States or Russia, or emerging ones, such as China.

There have been several critical diplomatic measures and emerging conflicts to look out for, which could either lead to regional stability or potential breakdown into renewed wars.

Shadow War Between Israel and Iran

In the aftermath of the Iranian Revolution, the now-ruling Mullahs declared a fatwa of the destruction of Israel to export the Islamic Revolution fully. As a result, Tel Aviv and Tehran have been in a shadow war since the 80s, with heightened tensions over the past several years.

Taking advantage of the aftermath of the US invasion of Iraq and the Syrian Civil War, the Islamic Republic established a land corridor to their proxy, Hezbollah, in Lebanon. The Mullahs have now found multiple fronts in a war against Israel.

In a tit-for-tat foreign policy, Israel formed a strategic partnership with Azerbaijan, the latter of which has hostile relations with Iran and has made the Mullahs panic. Ongoing strikes against Iranian officers (IRGC) and affiliated militias have taken place, with the Israeli government preparing contingencies to destroy Iran’s nuclear program if the international community doesn’t.

Iran’s proxies, such as Hezbollah, have established a joint command center with Palestinian militant groups, such as Hamas, to establish a base in Lebanon—a primary red line for Israel. Ongoing tensions have also drawn in the United States as IRGC-affiliated militias have frequently attacked US Forces in Syria, with the Sixth Fleet in a state of readiness.