Intelligence Analysts Reflect on Ukraine’s Unexpected Resilience Against Russia

When Russia first launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the world braced for a quick and overwhelming victory for Moscow. US intelligence analysts were among those who believed Kyiv would fall within just days—three, to be exact.

The thinking was that Russia’s military superiority, both in numbers and technology, would quickly crush Ukrainian defenses.

But fast forward to today, and Ukraine is still standing strong, pushing back Russian forces and holding ground in the east. In fact, Kyiv is not just surviving; it’s defying expectations, and that’s left many intelligence experts reconsidering their initial assessments.

Underestimating the “Will to Fight”

For the American Intelligence Community (IC), this unexpected resilience has been a humbling moment. As Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Kruse, chief of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), recently admitted, the key factor analysts missed wasn’t just military might or equipment—it was the sheer “will to fight” of the Ukrainian people and their military.

According to Kruse, the Ukrainians’ determination and ability to push back far exceeded what any of the intelligence agencies had anticipated.

“The Ukrainians … exhibited a will to fight that was far beyond anything any of us had estimated,” Kruse said at the recent Intelligence and National Security Alliance (INSA) event, quoted by Breaking Defense.

The “will to fight” factor was particularly striking for analysts who, having observed other military collapses, like Afghanistan’s, assumed that the Ukrainian military would eventually fold under pressure.

The Afghan forces, after all, had crumbled in mere days once US troops withdrew.

So, why was Ukraine different? For starters, Ukrainian soldiers and civilians weren’t just defending their homeland—they were defending their homes, their families, and their very way of life.

That emotional and psychological resolve alone became a powerful force in a way that wasn’t fully captured in traditional intelligence reports.

The units of the 79th Separate Air Assault Tavriyska Brigade were among the first to defend Ukraine in 2014. The brigade defended Slovyansk, Krasnyi Lyman, Debaltseve, and the Donetsk Airport.

At the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the brigade’s warriors were deployed in… pic.twitter.com/YNuGEpHTGk

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) November 15, 2024

A New Intelligence Approach: Measuring Morale

Kruse pointed out that this realization is prompting the DIA to think differently about how to assess military strength moving forward.

The agency has even developed a new methodology for evaluating “will to fight” in military forces. It’s an attempt to turn something intangible—soldier morale, national resolve—into something that can be measured and factored into future intelligence assessments.

For intelligence professionals, understanding that the human element—the morale and spirit of a fighting force—can be just as important as physical capabilities is a huge shift in thinking.

But while Ukraine’s resilience has been a surprise, it’s also clear that Russia’s failures on the battlefield played a huge role in the stalemate.

US analysts, Kruse admits, also underestimated the poor quality of Russian equipment and the lack of coordination among Russian forces.

The Russian military wasn’t as well-prepared as analysts thought, and their inability to adapt to the rapidly changing battlefield dynamics only added to the frustration.

Russia’s military has faced setbacks not just from Ukraine’s fierce defense but from its own mistakes, miscalculations, and leadership failures.

Still, the road ahead remains uncertain, and the war is far from over. While Ukraine has shown incredible resilience, the situation continues to evolve.

Kruse’s comments about China’s military ambitions in Taiwan and North Korea’s involvement with Russia highlight the broader, interconnected geopolitical context in which Ukraine is fighting.

The lessons learned from the Ukrainian conflict could shape how the US approaches intelligence in the future, particularly when it comes to assessing the strength and resolve of adversaries.

What makes this conflict so interesting—and challenging for analysts—is that it’s not just about weapons and tactics; it’s about human willpower, national pride, and an entire population’s refusal to give up.

Ukraine’s defense has redefined expectations, and for intelligence analysts, that’s a wake-up call.

Shifting Intelligence Strategies for the Future

The next time they’re tasked with assessing a military force or a geopolitical situation, they’ll be taking into account more than just the hardware; they’ll be looking at the heart and soul of the people fighting.

The 25th Separate Airborne Sicheslav Brigade has been at the forefront of Ukraine’s defense since 2014. The Sicheslav paratroopers are the only ones in Ukraine capable of parachuting in near full strength with their equipment.

Even before the full-scale invasion, the brigade had… pic.twitter.com/CvR60eglAt

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) November 14, 2024

This shift in perspective could have broad implications for US intelligence.

As Kruse pointed out, understanding the “will to fight” factor could eventually help the US assess adversaries like China, especially as tensions over Taiwan continue to rise.

The intelligence community is adapting, but it’s clear that some things just can’t be predicted—like the power of an entire nation united in the face of invasion.

The resilience of Ukraine serves as a reminder that even in modern warfare, the human spirit remains one of the most unpredictable and powerful forces on the battlefield. And as analysts reflect on what went wrong with their initial assessments, they’re also learning an important lesson: never underestimate the will to fight.