The US-Japan alliance could pay a high price in exchange for Taiwan’s sovereignty.

A simulation by a Japanese think tank recently concluded that a military retaliation response from the US-Japan alliance could cost hundreds of aircraft and other munitions to prevent China from taking over the Taiwan Strait.

Japanese think tank Sasakawa Peace Foundation demonstrated in a tabletop wargame that American and Japanese forces would both pay for a costly war in the event of intervention in the Taiwan crisis, with “Japan losing as many as 144 fighter jets (including F-35s and F-2s) … [while] the US could lose up to 400 [warplanes],” according to a report by Nikkei Asia.

The coalition would also suffer immense casualties, with over 10,000 US soldiers killed or wounded and as many as 2,500 Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) men. Nonetheless, China would fail to annex the island, maintaining Taiwan’s sovereignty.

Invasion of Taiwan Wargame

In Japan’s think tank scenario, Beijing was assumed to attack Taipei via an amphibious invasion in 2026. The simulation ran for four days through January 21.