President Biden announced a new batch of military aid bound for Ukraine. The package, worth around $700 million, includes the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) that can accurately hit targets up to 190 miles. But in this case, the US will only be sending rockets that can hit targets up to 43 miles.

This comes after the White House continually flip-flopped on the decision to send rocket systems to Ukraine, likely because Russia might see this as an act of war, and Ukraine might use them to strike targets in mainland Russia. As SOFREP’s Guy McCardle points out in an earlier article, any missile system can hit targets inside Russia depending on its proximity to the border. Read his article here for more information about the flip-flopping from the White House.

“The people of Ukraine continue to inspire the world with their courage and resolve as they fight bravely to defend their country and their democracy against Russian aggression,” Biden said in a statement.

“The United States will stand with our Ukrainian partners and continue to provide Ukraine with weapons and equipment to defend itself.”

Biden announced his decision to provide sophisticated rocket systems to Ukraine in an opinion piece he wrote for The New York Times.

“Every negotiation reflects the facts on the ground. We have moved quickly to send Ukraine a significant amount of weaponry and ammunition so it can fight on the battlefield and be in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table.”

This piece finally revealed that Ukraine would indeed be receiving the HIMARS after much of the usual back and forth we’ve been getting from the White House. As was said before, the US is only sending satellite-guided rockets that can hit targets up to 43 miles to 48 miles, packed with the same explosive power of a 500-pound bomb. The HIMARS can be armed with long-range rockets, but it seems that if the US did send these, it might be too tempting for the Ukrainians to resist hitting targets in Russia. To us, this seems like an appeasement to Putin and the Kremlin more than concern about what Ukraine might do with these long-range rockets. To Ukraine, the United States is the Goose that lays the Golden Egg, making it clear that using the rockets with 150-mile range to shoot into Russia would put the US in a very tight spot and would necessitate us cutting off all aid to them would probably be enough to prevent Ukraine from lobbing rockets into Russia.  Doing so, would not win the war for Ukraine, while the US withdrawing military support would most certainly cause them to lose.

So far, the US is only sending 4 of the HIMARs units to Ukraine, so this will not dramatically shift the balance of military power suddenly in Ukraine, but their ability to fire precision-guided rockets with an accuracy within 15ft, would mean that Ukraine would get more bang for the buck out of each missile fired at Russian forces. Their relatively small size and great mobility will make them more survivable as well, able to fire their missiles in 45 seconds in order to “Shoot and Scoot” to another location before the Russians can fix their position and shoot back at them.  That 44 miles range gives you some time to get out of there.  After firing the driver of the HIMARs just has to put it in gear and drive away a couple of miles to reload very quickly and get set up to fire again. By contrast, firing the 144-mile range rockets would make the HIMARs all but invulnerable to counter-battery fire given the extra time that kind of range buys you.