Russian President Putin announced the military attack on Ukraine in a pre-recorded TV address (Reuters via BBC). Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60503037
Over the past couple of decades, a loss of trust among governments and their constituents has occurred. Whether the issue is perpetual warfare, crisis handling, economy, or foreign and domestic policies, governments, particularly in the West, are losing the popular support they initially had amongst Millennials and Generation Z.
The paradigm shift amongst lack of faith in Western governments is a gift to autocrats, despots, and even populists themselves. One of the chief architects of hybrid and information warfare, Vladimir Putin, directly benefits from the lack of cohesion among Western states.
The Slow Collapse of Western-Based Order
In the aftermath of the September 11th Attacks, the Global War on Terrorism, and mass security implementations, citizens in Western countries have pushed back against their elected officials.
The War in Iraq was a significant turning point not just in the Middle East but also in North America and Europe, as the false intelligence by the George Bush Jr. administration and Tony Blair Cabinet left a polarizing view on governments. Add in the 9/11 conspiracies and lack of faith in the media due to misinformation and disinformation, and the masses would look to the alternatives. Unfortunately, the alternatives became the greatest rivals and threats to the Western World.
Rise of the Populists and Autocrats
Where citizens of the world could no longer trust the original leadership of the world due to bias in human rights and international law, autocrats, and populists would use their emotional grief to garner support for their nefarious purposes.
Over the past couple of decades, a loss of trust among governments and their constituents has occurred. Whether the issue is perpetual warfare, crisis handling, economy, or foreign and domestic policies, governments, particularly in the West, are losing the popular support they initially had amongst Millennials and Generation Z.
The paradigm shift amongst lack of faith in Western governments is a gift to autocrats, despots, and even populists themselves. One of the chief architects of hybrid and information warfare, Vladimir Putin, directly benefits from the lack of cohesion among Western states.
The Slow Collapse of Western-Based Order
In the aftermath of the September 11th Attacks, the Global War on Terrorism, and mass security implementations, citizens in Western countries have pushed back against their elected officials.
The War in Iraq was a significant turning point not just in the Middle East but also in North America and Europe, as the false intelligence by the George Bush Jr. administration and Tony Blair Cabinet left a polarizing view on governments. Add in the 9/11 conspiracies and lack of faith in the media due to misinformation and disinformation, and the masses would look to the alternatives. Unfortunately, the alternatives became the greatest rivals and threats to the Western World.
Rise of the Populists and Autocrats
Where citizens of the world could no longer trust the original leadership of the world due to bias in human rights and international law, autocrats, and populists would use their emotional grief to garner support for their nefarious purposes.
Vladimir Putin was already famous amongst some in the West as an “alternative” to the American-based hegemonic geopolitics. Initially having the world disregard his wars in Chechnya, Georgia, and Syria, the Russian autocrat set his sights on Ukraine—ultimately leading to Europe’s most significant war since WWII.
Allied to Putin, Bashar al-Assad has grown a cult of personality around him, as his continued rule in Syria and lack of valuable Western-backed alternatives is seen as a ‘victory,’ despite the destruction caused to keep his family’s autocracy.
Other autocrats are directly benefiting from Western weakness and indecision, such as Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan, Kim Jong Un of North Korea, Xi Jinping of China, Ali Khamenei of Iran, Nicholas Maduro of Venezuela, and the Hamas terrorist organization in the Gaza Strip.
The Alternatives Want Chaos, Not Order
When Vladimir Putin declared a new “multipolar world,” the Russian tyrant only used the phrase to gather support from the global south. In truth, Putin wants a new world full of like-minded people willing to break the international norms where wars of territorial conquest can once again be normalized and democracies are broken into hybrid regimes.
Perhaps realizing they cannot confront Western countries through military means, the authoritarian regime instead looks to see doubt and distrust amongst Western heads of state and their citizens, mainly through hybrid and information warfare.
Hybrid warfare, frequently practiced by Russian intelligence services, such as the FSB, is ongoing in Eastern Europe and Africa. The hybrid warfare strategy plays into collapsing Western governments, which give autocrats and populists new life.
First, migrants are purposely flushed toward Italy, Spain, Greece, Finland, Lithuania, and Poland. The goal is to overwhelm the European Union and potentially overextend and collapse the social system.
Next, due to failures to stem the migrant push, the traditional governments either step down or lose their next general election, allowing for the rise of populists, some of whom are directly tied to the Kremlin itself. Examples include Fidesz in Hungary, Smer in Slovakia, and the rising in polls AfD in Germany.
Current Conflicts Sow the Seeds of the New Multipolar Order
The Russian invasion of Ukraine from 2014 onwards planted the seeds of the new global geopolitical alignment—and the illegal annexations in Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaphorizhzhia, and Kherson planted the seeds for other autocrats to make their move.
Reflective of using gas to prop up his regime and lobby Europe akin to Putin and Nordstrom, Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan finished an ethnic cleansing campaign of the remaining Karabakh Armenian population in 2023, to much shock, concern, and criticism. Aliyev’s partner and top financer, Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, has made threats to annex the Aegean isles of Greece and potentially the occupied northern region of Cyprus.
Nicholas Maduro floated the idea of potentially annexing a large chunk of Guyana, especially their oil-rich regions. In Africa, Abiy Ahmed, a Nobel Peace Prize recipient enshrined in genocide, has floated the idea of potentially annexing land in Eritrea in the future.
The overall goal of breaking apart the unipolar Western system isn’t for equal rights for all but a cover for tyrants to use the emotions of the global south to further their own imperial and kleptocratic ambitions. The multipolar world chaos could become a reality if the traditional parties in the West are not more aware of the geopolitical realities around them.
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