Size Isn’t Everything
Despite having the second largest Air Force on the planet, the Russians cannot, and will not, gain air superiority in Ukraine. This fact has played a massive role in the ongoing slugfest of a ground war that we’ve observed in that nation over the past seven months. This was not Putin’s plan for his “special military operation,” and I’m sure he’s not happy with the progress, or lack thereof.
As reported in mid-March by Business Insider and multiple other news outlets, Putin expected a “swift and decisive” victory in Ukraine, hoping to redraw the nation’s borders and execute regime change in the capital city of Kyiv. However, he believed his own propaganda and overestimated the willingness of his troops to fight and die for Mother Russia.
Just minutes after making the televised statement shown above, Russians started bombing several critical areas in Ukraine, including the capital city of Kyiv. US intelligence agencies, of course, had been analyzing the situation for many weeks and came up with their own assessments and theories. The Director of the CIA, Bill Burns, informed US lawmakers that he believed Putin’s goal was to take Kyiv “within the first two days of the campaign.” He went on to say how he believed the city could not fight off the invaders for more than a day or two.
But, in general, Mr. Burns, the CIA, and US intelligence were wrong…Kyiv did not fall, and Ukraine did not give up in a matter of days. Quite the opposite. Today, after months of bloody combat and tens of thousands dead on both sides, Ukraine seems to have the upper hand, pushing the Russians back up against their own borders.