Northern Mali teeters on the brink of renewed conflict as armed groups seize Bourem, casting a shadow over fragile peace efforts.

In a troubling turn of events, armed groups from northern Mali announced on Tuesday that they had successfully captured the strategically significant town of Bourem.

This town, nestled between the ancient cities of Gao and Timbuktu, has become the latest flashpoint in the ongoing conflict between these armed factions and the Malian national army. The capture of Bourem raises concerns about the stability of the peace agreement signed in 2015 and suggests a resurgence of hostilities in this troubled region.

Shroud of Uncertainty: Conflicting Reports Surround Mali’s Bourem Operation

Malian authorities have remained tight-lipped about the operation, leaving the situation shrouded in uncertainty. Witnesses from the remote region have provided conflicting reports, with some suggesting that the army, with support from the air force, regained control of Bourem.

Regardless, the Permanent Strategic Framework (CSP), a coalition of armed factions that had previously signed a peace agreement with the state, issued a statement claiming responsibility for the operation. They declared they had taken “control of the camp and various advanced posts” from the Malian army and the Russian paramilitary group Wagner.

Mohamed El Maouloud Ramadane, a spokesperson for the CSP, stated that “intense fighting” had preceded the capture of Bourem. Local resident Mahamoud Ould Mety confirmed the chaos in the town, reporting that “unidentified armed groups had encircled the camp and roamed through the town,” but he also noted that “the aircraft reacted against them. We can hear more firing, the FAMA (Malian Armed Forces) are everywhere in the town in numbers.”

Tensions Escalate: Fragile Peace Tested by Tuareg Alliance, Junta’s Rise

The alliance of predominantly Tuareg armed groups had initially rebelled against the state in 2012 but had later signed the Algiers agreement with the Malian government in 2015. However, the fragile peace deal faced increasing strain after the civilian government was overthrown in 2020 and replaced by a junta.

The Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA), one of the signatories of the Algiers agreement, declared itself “at war” with the ruling junta on Monday, further exacerbating tensions in the region. This region, the birthplace of a jihadist insurgency that has spread across three Sahel nations, has witnessed escalating tension in recent weeks. The withdrawal of United Nations (UN) peacekeeping troops from Mali has contributed to the growing unrest.

On Tuesday, the CSP framework justified its actions, claiming to act in “legitimate defense in the face of provocations by terrorists from the Malian army accompanied by the Wagner militia.” Bourem’s strategic location on the road connecting Timbuktu and Gao, near the Niger River and heading toward the Tuareg stronghold of Kidal in the north, adds to its significance in this conflict.

UN Peacekeepers’ Exit: Mali’s Precarious Path to Peace

In late August, the junta had called for armed groups to reinitiate dialogue and revive the faltering peace deal, expressing fears of renewed hostilities following the UN peacekeepers’ withdrawal. The Framework groups, however, are concerned that the junta may exploit the vacuum left by the UN’s exit to reassert control over areas previously ceded under the peace accords.

The situation worsened after the UN peacekeepers vacated a base last month, leading to clashes between troops and jihadists, as well as confrontations between the army and the CMA. The Framework alleges that after the base was abandoned, the army and Russian Wagner paramilitaries unleashed violence on the local population, including summary executions, arbitrary arrests, and looting.

The UN peacekeeping mission, known as the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA), has been operating in Mali for a decade in response to the ongoing instability and conflict in the country. The mission’s primary objective has been to promote peace, security, and stability following political turmoil and a surge in militant activity. However, following the withdrawal of French troops in 2022 and the demands of Mali’s ruling junta, MINUSMA has been ordered to complete its exit by December 31. Right after mandating, in July, the UN peacekeeping mission began ceasing its operations, as well as transferring its tasks and reducing and withdrawing its personnel from the region, aiming to accomplish the process within the agreed timeline. This decision has further complicated the security situation in Mali.

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The capture of Bourem by armed groups has undoubtedly intensified the turmoil in northern Mali. The situation remains fluid and unpredictable, leaving the fate of the Algiers agreement hanging in the balance and deepening concerns about the resurgence of hostilities in this volatile region. As the UN peacekeeping mission inches closer to its withdrawal deadline, international attention remains fixed on Mali, with hopes of a peaceful resolution to the ongoing crisis rapidly fading.