If Wednesday’s ceasefire in Aleppo holds, it could be a real turning point in what has become the world’s worst — and perhaps most geopolitically complex — conflict in recent memory.

After four years of fighting, however — particularly heavy for the last two weeks — it’s unclear whether the truce will stick. The tactical situation in the city remains largely murky. For government forces, rebels and their international backers alike, what happens in Aleppo is seen as setting the tone for the rest of the country.

The question now is whether the ceasefire pushes them towards a negotiated settlement that could ultimately begin to restore Syria’s stability — or simply represents a lull before yet more battles.

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