Like Moscow, Minsk has augmented its drills with weaponry and military equipment.
Since the beginning of the year, unofficial Telegram channels monitoring the military have been reporting the presence of several fighter jets, helicopters, and military transport planes entering the country – eight fighters and four cargo planes on Sunday, being the most recent.
Confirmation of the reports needed to be more attainable, according to Reuters. In response to the speculation, the Belarusian defense ministry stated that “units” of Russia’s air force are being transferred to Belarus.
The Ministry of Defence issued a statement announcing that all airfields and training grounds belonging to the Air Force and Air Defence Forces of the Armed Forces of Belarus will be utilized during a tactical flight exercise.
Muraveyko declared that the nation’s southern frontier bordering Ukraine is “not tranquil” and that Ukraine has been “stirring up” Belarus.
Muraveyko said they are exercising restraint and patience, saving their strength for any possible acts of aggression or terror on their land. He added that they have the necessary military power and resources to respond to such threats.
Last week, Aleksey Polishchuk, a representative of Russia’s foreign ministry, cautioned that the joint military exercises with Belarus were meant to stave off conflict. However, Belarus could become involved in the hostilities if Ukraine launched an invasion.
Is Belarus Set to Join the War?
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The possibility of Belarus joining a war in Ukraine and Russia has been widely discussed and contested in recent months, especially due to the fact that the two countries are now holding joint military exercises in the region. The joint military exercises are meant to create a deterrence against possible conflicts; however, it is unclear how this would play out if actual hostilities did break out.
The Ukrainian-Russian conflict is complex and multi-faceted, with tensions simmering between the two countries since 2014. In 2015, Belarus signed an agreement with Russia that allowed for the deployment of Russian air defense systems on its territory and resulted in an increased Russian military presence there. This move was potentially setting the stage for Belarus to join forces with Russia during any conflict with Ukraine.
While Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko has stated he does not want his country to become involved in any war between Ukraine and Russia, analysts note that he has repeatedly hinted at Belarus’s readiness to defend its interests or even perform as Russia’s ally if needed. Furthermore, Muraveyko declared that their country had enough resources to respond adequately to any threats or aggression, meaning they could join sides at any given moment.
So, while no one can predict what the future holds for this particular geopolitical issue, it is safe to say that Belarus is highly likely to join forces with Russia if a war breaks out between them and Ukraine. The potential consequences of such a scenario remain unknown; however, it may result in an escalation of hostilities and pose a threat to regional stability in Eastern Europe as well as globally.
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