Introduction
This is the third in a series of posts regarding three Russian hypersonic missiles. The first post covered the concept of Circular Error Probable (CEP), a metric of accuracy. The second post covered the ground-launched Iskander short-range ballistic missile. This post will cover the air-launched Kinzhal missile. The Zircon (Tsirkon) will be covered in a coming post.
The KH-47M2 Kinzhal
The KH-47M2 Kinzhal (NATO designation AS-24 Killjoy) is a hypersonic (Mach 10-12) air-launched missile. The Kinzhal has been in the Russian inventory since 2017, but has gained notoriety during the Ukrainian War. It was first used in March, 2022 to destroy weapons armories in Western Ukraine. Later in 2022 and throughout 2023, Russia ramped up serial production of the Kinzhal and the weapon became a fixture in the regular drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian targets.
Development and Capabilities
The Kinzhal was developed from the ground-launched Iskander. Both are propelled by solid-fuel rocket engines. The Kinzhal’s GLONASS and optical guidance systems have been modified for their air-to-ground role. It delivers a Circular Error Probable of 1 meter.
Physical Characteristics
One could be forgiven for mistaking one missile for the other. Figure 1 shows a clear resemblance.
While the Iskander travels at speeds of Mach 6 to Mach 8, the Kinzhal travels at speeds of Mach 10 to Mach 12. At such high speeds, the missile is enveloped in a plasma cloud of ionized gas that is impenetrable by radar.
Detection and Interception Challenges
The Kinzhal’s high speed and plasma cloud makes it difficult (but not impossible) to detect with radar. Radar cannot see into the plasma cloud, but neither can the missile’s sensors see out. In the terminal phase, the Kinzhal slows enough for its own sensors to acquire the target. At certain points in its mission profile, the Kinzhal is vulnerable to detection.
Ukrainian Claims and Controversies
Ukrainian (which is now Western) air defense has difficulty shooting down Kinzhals. This is an understatement. Ukraine claimed to have downed a Kinzhal using a Patriot battery in defense of Kyiv, but this claim became controversial. Kyiv’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko, proudly posed for a photograph with the downed “Kinzhal” (see Figure 2).
Inspect Figure 2 and compare it to Figures 3 and 4. Figures 3 and 4 show details, from different aspects, of Kinzhals mounted on MiG-31K delivery platforms. Comparison of the missiles depicted in Figures 3 and 4 against the debris shown in Figure 2 raises questions about the object Klitschko is displaying. It’s not a Kinzhal nose cone. It might be the explosive warhead from inside the nose cone, but the object’s scale remains questionable.
It’s not the length of the warhead that is in question but its diameter. The cylinder in Figure 2 would rattle around inside the nose cone illustrated in Figure 4. The Kinzhal is a big missile. You’re slinging an Iskander under the belly of a fighter.
Vulnerability and Controversies
The subject of whether or not Kinzhals can be intercepted by Patriots remains controversial. Anecdotally, NATO is attempting to network Patriot radars with radars located in Poland to better detect Kinzhals during vulnerable phases of their flight paths. We’re not going to discuss this issue further here; let’s say that if it can be done, it’s very difficult. What cannot be disputed is that missile attacks have laid waste to Ukraine’s air defense and energy infrastructure – despite the prodigious expenditure of western-supplied air defense.
Variants and Capabilities
Variants of the Iskander-M are capable of maneuvering, and there is a cruise missile variant of the Iskander. The reader is referred to our previous post. It has been claimed that variants of the Kinzhal can be remotely directed, but there is little known about this guidance capability, or whether a cruise missile variant of the Kinzhal exists.
Delivery Platforms
The Kinzhal is currently delivered by two platforms: 1) the MiG-31K interceptor and 2) the TU-22M3 bomber. This is partly responsible for the speed advantage the Kinzhal has over the Iskander. At the time of launch, the speed of the delivery platform is added to the speed of the missile itself. Russia’s delivery platform of choice has been the MiG-31K.
Ukraine monitors Russian aircraft’ takeoff from its bases and sounds air raid warnings. Every other night, MiG-31Ks take off from their bases, and Ukraine cowers in the expectation of Kinzhal strikes. The Kinzhal has a range of 2,000 km when launched from a MiG-31K and 3,000 km when launched from a TU-22M3. These aircraft can launch safely inside Russia and reach any target in Ukraine.
Recently, with Ukraine running out of soldiers, artillery ammunition, vehicles, and air defense, there have been calls for the delivery of long-range missiles to Ukraine with the objective of striking targets deep within Russia. Russian officials have warned that such strikes would cross a “red line” and have threatened to strike targets in the West. To make the point, Russia has commenced non-strategic nuclear weapons drills.
Figure 6 shows a Kinzhal, painted with a red nose cone, mounted on a MiG-31K. Was this photoshopped? It is the only photograph this writer has seen of a Kinzhal with a red nose cone.
The Kinzhal can carry both conventional and nuclear warheads. Like the Iskander, the Kinzhal’s nuclear payload falls in the 5 to 50-kiloton range. While it cannot be confirmed, the photo in Figure 6 appeared during non-strategic nuclear weapons drills. It is possible the red nose cone indicates a Kinzhal armed with a nuclear payload.
This video is an overview of the development of the Kinzhal:
Previous Posts for Reference
Here are links to our earlier posts for reference:
CEP: https://sofrep.com/news/why-accuracy-metrics-matter-in-modern-warfare/
Iskander: https://sofrep.com/news/the-iskander-missile-changing-the-dynamics-of-modern-warfare-in-ukraine/
You can see why this material is useful for our discussion of the Kinzhal, an air-launched hypersonic missile. Our next post will cover the Zircon (Tsirkon) a naval hypersonic missile. The Zircon was conceived as a carrier-killer. This year, it has seen combat striking ground targets in Ukraine.
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About the Author
Cameron Curtis
Cameron Curtis has spent thirty years on trade floors as a trader and risk manager. He was on the trade floor when Saddam’s tanks rolled into Kuwait, when the air wars opened over Baghdad and Belgrade, and when the financial crisis swallowed the world. Having written fiction as a child, he is the author of the Breed action thriller series, available on Amazon.
Editor’s Note: All of us here at SOFREP are big Cameron Curtis fans. Be sure to check out his Breed series of thrillers. Once you pick one up, you won’t want to put it back down. — GDM
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