High-ranking Kremlin officials believe that the invasion of Ukraine has been “lost,” adding that the regime under the Russian President Vladimir Putin is reaching its final stretch as Putin is reportedly facing coup and cancer rumors.

A group of “informed elite” within the Russian security forces have concluded that there is no chance for Russia to win the war in Ukraine, according to Bellingcat chief investigator Christo Grozev. Bellingcat is a Netherlands-based investigative journalism publication that has also covered the developments in the Russo-Ukrainian War.

“I think that it is the informed elite within the security forces who understand that the war is lost,” Grozev said. He also mentioned that Putin would have to enact full mobilization for Moscow to stand a chance in the conflict. However, he noted that such a mandate would cause “a social explosion” in Russia.

Vladimir Putin with Defense Minister Gen. Shoigu (left) and Gen. Valery Gerasimov (Putin's left) (Kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons). Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Vladimir_Putin_in_National_Centre_for_management_of_defence_05.jpg
Vladimir Putin with Defense Minister Gen. Shoigu (left) and Gen. Valery Gerasimov (Putin’s left) (Kremlin.ruCC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons)

Even with conflicting figures, it is safe to assume that Putin’s offensive has cost the lives of thousands of Russian soldiers. The British Defense Ministry believes that the Kremlin has lost as much as a third of its invasion force after almost four months of continuous fighting. This implies that tens of thousands of soldiers have perished along with millions, if not billions of dollars worth of military equipment and vessels.

The devastating losses are creating a snowball effect on the performance of the Russian military, which has appeared to be losing momentum as the war drags on.

“These are those parts of the security forces who know the dangers for the regime, and they themselves are now preparing their future,” Grozev said. He noted that these security officials, who are aware of the true number of casualties, see Putin as losing his grip on Russia.

Grozev also mentioned that some officers within Russia’s Federal Security Services (FSB) and Main Directorate (GRU) are making preparations for an upcoming regime change.

“Some of them are looking for an opportunity to take their families out of Russia,” Grozev added.