It’s been almost a week since Ukraine started their offensive with the goal of reclaiming most of the Russian-occupied regions like Crimea and Kherson.
We’ve reported that there has been aggressive movement on Ukraine’s side, with Russians taking losses daily in men, artillery, ammunition, and tanks. We also reported on the memoir of one of the Russian veterans who decided to share his take on the Russian offensive, giving us an in-depth look at what actually goes on on the Russian side.
And today, Russians are getting bombarded yet again by Ukrainians as the latter see a gap in military communications and poor leadership. According to the British Intelligence report, Ukraine is taking advantage of Russia’s “poor logistics, administration and leadership.” They continue to shoot HIMARS decoys and disrupt lines of communications as the Ukrainian Ground Forces focus on an ongoing campaign along the west of the Dnipro River, “focusing on three axes within Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast.”
“The operation has limited immediate objectives, but Ukraine’s forces have likely achieved a degree of tactical surprise; exploiting poor logistics, administration, and leadership in the Russian armed forces.
How is the offensive going ? pic.twitter.com/uq6HLuZoFQ
— Marnellus (@Naru12431) September 2, 2022
With fighting also continuing in the Donbas and Kharkiv sectors, a key decision for Russian commanders in coming days will be where to commit any operational reserve force they can generate.”
Additionally, the Ukrainian forces are moving to fight the Russians who have fired missiles at Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, in Donestk Oblast. According to the region’s governor, Pavlo Kyrylenko, the Russian missiles hit some light industry enterprises in Kramatorsk, injuring one person and two enterprises in Sloviansk.
Meanwhile, Sumy Oblast Governor Dmytro Zhyvytskyi said the Russian forces shelled the Velykopysarivska community in Sumy Oblast “with mortars five times” a couple of hours ago. There were no casualties reported.
Ukrainian forces also shot down two Bayraktar drones and destroyed Russian equipment worth $25.6 million in 3 days. Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi also said that their drones destroyed eight Russian T-72 tanks, one infantry vehicle, and multiple howitzers.
A Ukrainian drone shot down another Russian helicopter in Donetsk. According to Ukraine’s Air Force, the Russian attack helicopter Ka-52 (aka “Alligator”), along with an unmanned aerial vehicle “Forpost,” were also destroyed in the morning.
As Moscow is trying to find resources, especially people, to fill in their gaps in the frontline, Ukrainian intelligence reported that about 40% of military equipment from Russia’s newly formed 3rd Army Corps was deemed “not combat ready.” Moreover, a representative from the Defense Ministry’s Intelligence Directorate noted that Russia’s latest military equipment was depleted in February and March, so the new units that are supposed to provide backup and support to Russia’s depleting frontlines have received outdated Soviet-style equipment. This aligns with the Russian veteran’s memoir of the poor allocation of their resources even in elite units like the paratroopers.
We can taste ‘Freedom’ and ‘Victory’
As this campaign continues on a positive trajectory for the Ukrainians, President Volodomyr Zelensky posted a one-word tweet that sums up how everyone is feeling: “Freedom.” Their official Twitter account also posted another one-word statement that says: “Victory.”
— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) September 2, 2022
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) September 2, 2022
This sentiment is also felt from the Russian side after UN inspectors were able to reach the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, and two of their investigators were stationed to monitor the region for any changes. Ukrainian officials have claimed that in advance of the UN inspection, the Russians moved military equipment sheltered at the nuclear power plant to outlying areas. In a photo that appeared in the UK Telegraph, Russian officials attempt to Rafael Grossi, head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog group why a rocket embedded in the grounds of the nuclear power plants is at an angle that strongly suggests it came from the Russian side of the lines.
Independent polling from the organization Levada indicated that while most of the Russian military supports the war, public support is waning, according to the Institute for the Study of War.
” Levada stated that the overall support for Russian forces in Ukraine has not changed significantly over the summer, with 76% of the survey’s respondents in favor of the action of Russian forces in Ukraine (46% strongly supporting and 30% generally supporting). Levada also noted that 48% of respondents believe that it is necessary for Russian operations in Ukraine to continue. The polls showed that 44% of respondents were in favor of peace negotiations and that a majority of Russia’s younger segments of the population (18-39-year-olds) favor negotiations. In March of 2022, Levada found that 53% of respondents strongly support Russian military actions in Ukraine but that the percentage of respondents in this category declined to 46% by August. This is a minor deterioration and will not fundamentally impair the Kremlin’s ability to conduct the war. However, declining support and war weariness will likely increasingly impede Russian recruitment and force generation efforts.
— curious jorge🇺🇦 (@medinaj1975) September 2, 2022
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi is also claiming their big win because they can be the accurate source of information with regard to the power plant.
“Now, when there is an allegation that something has happened at the plant, you can turn to us,” he said, rather than weighing the conflicting claims of Russia and Ukraine. “That’s the difference.”
Here is the recent count of Russian losses:
- 2059 tanks
- 4440 armored combat vehicles
- 1142 artillery
- 297 multiple launch rocket systems
- 153 air defense systems
- 236 military jets
- 205 helicopters
- 875 drones
- 208 cruise missiles
- 15 warships and boats
- 3289 vehicles and fuel tanks
- 105 special equipment
- 49,400 eliminated personnel
- over 900 elite military personnel
- 151 service people with the GRU special forces
- 245 members of the National Guard (including those from special forces units)
- 67 Russian military pilots