SOFREP Daily: Taiwan Holds Defense Drills After Spotting Chinese Balloons, US Urges Ukraine to Lower Military Age, Trump Taps Retired General as Ukraine-Russia Envoy

Good morning, and welcome to your top defense and global affairs rundown for Thursday, November 28. Let’s dive into the headlines driving today’s geopolitical landscape.

Taiwan Holds Defense Drills After Spotting Chinese Balloons

Taiwan’s military was on high alert Thursday morning, running a defense drill that included deploying jets, ships, and missile systems.

This came after the defense ministry spotted two Chinese balloons hovering over waters near the island.

Taiwan sees these balloons as part of China’s ongoing strategy to ramp up pressure, a tactic they call “grey zone” harassment—provocative, but not outright war.

The balloons were detected not long after similar sightings earlier in the week, along with reports of 13 Chinese military aircraft and seven navy ships near Taiwan.

13 PLA aircraft and 7 PLAN vessels operating around Taiwan were detected up until 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today. 9 of the aircraft crossed the median line and entered Taiwan’s northern and southwestern ADIZ. We have monitored the situation and responded accordingly. pic.twitter.com/e3vuP4fcnU

— 國防部 Ministry of National Defense, ROC(Taiwan) 🇹🇼 (@MoNDefense) November 28, 2024

The early morning exercise tested how quickly and effectively Taiwan’s air defenses could respond to threats.

President Lai Ching-te, who’s vocal about Taiwan’s sovereignty, is set to travel to Pacific nations soon, with a possible stop in the United States—something that’s almost certain to provoke China.

Taiwan, always under the threat of invasion, has been stepping up its military spending and relies heavily on US arms to bolster its defenses.

As tensions rise, the island is making it clear it won’t back down.

Putin Prioritizes Defense Over Economy in 2025 Budget

Russia is putting even more money into its military next year, with lawmakers approving a nearly 30 percent increase in defense spending on Wednesday.

That means a record 13.5 trillion rubles ($125 billion) will go toward “national defense,” surpassing what the country plans to spend on welfare and education combined.

And that’s not even counting classified or “domestic security” expenses tied to the war in Ukraine.

President Vladimir Putin, who’s expected to sign off on the budget soon, has already said that Russia is spending close to 9 percent of its entire economy on defense—levels not seen since the Cold War.

The focus is on pumping out weapons and keeping frontline soldiers well-paid, even as ordinary Russians feel the pinch from rising inflation and a ruble that’s losing value fast.

The ruble, which used to hover around 75-80 per dollar before the Ukraine invasion, has now dropped to over 105, sparking concerns about the country’s economic health.

While the government is doubling down on military spending, businesses and households are left grappling with the financial strain.

Russia Hits Ukraine’s Infrastructure Ahead of Winter Freeze

Russia launched a “massive” overnight assault on Ukraine’s energy grid, causing emergency blackouts as freezing temperatures set in.

Ukrainian officials are calling it another wave of “terror tactics” aimed at leaving at least 1 million civilians in the dark and cold as winter looms.

Cities like Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Odesa faced missile and drone strikes, forcing energy providers to cut power in several regions to prevent further damage.

Ukraine’s energy minister said the attack hit infrastructure across the country, with air raid sirens blaring nationwide.

The Commander of the Air Force, along with the Ministers of Internal Affairs and Energy, provided reports regarding the aftermath of the latest Russian strike targeting our energy infrastructure. In total, approximately 100 strike drones and over 90 missiles of various types were… pic.twitter.com/gClYnks7or

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) November 28, 2024

Meanwhile, Russia appears to be stockpiling missiles for more winter strikes, escalating its strategy to wear down Ukraine’s defenses and civilian morale.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s chief of staff labeled the attacks as deliberate warfare against civilians.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is grappling with manpower shortages and bracing for what could be the harshest winter since the war began.

US Urges Ukraine to Lower Military Age for More Troops

Ukraine’s military is under growing pressure to bolster its ranks, and the US is urging Kyiv to lower the minimum age for military service from 25 to 18.

A senior US official stressed on Wednesday that manpower is Ukraine’s most urgent need right now, as Russian forces continue making steady gains, especially in the east.

While the US and other allies are providing equipment and weapons, the official warned that without fresh troops, Ukraine’s frontline fighters can’t rotate out to rest and recover.

President Zelenskyy has already lowered the mobilization age once this year, from 27 to 25, but lowering it further is politically sensitive.

Ukraine is considering non-mandatory recruitment drives to attract younger volunteers instead.

However, a Zelenskyy advisor pointed out that equipping new recruits is another challenge, citing delays in getting essential gear like armored vehicles from Western partners.

The debate over conscription and recruitment underscores how high the stakes are as winter looms and the fighting intensifies.

US Sends $725M in Arms to Ukraine as Biden Prepares to Exit

President Joe Biden is putting together a hefty $725 million weapons package for Ukraine, aiming to shore up Kyiv’s defenses before leaving office in January.

The aid, announced on Wednesday, includes anti-tank weapons, drones, Stinger missiles, High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) ammunition, and even controversial landmines. These “non-persistent” landmines are designed to deactivate after a short time, reducing long-term risks to civilians—a key point since the US hasn’t exported landmines in decades.

This marks a significant increase from Biden’s recent aid packages, which have been around $125-250 million.

With an estimated $4-5 billion in emergency authority still available, Biden is pulling out all the stops as Russia continues to gain ground in Ukraine.

Recent reports say Moscow’s forces have made their fastest advances since 2022, taking territory the size of half of London in the past month.

The package also includes cluster munitions, a hot topic due to their use in HIMARS systems.

These weapons are expected to be used on Ukrainian soil, away from civilian areas, as Kyiv ramps up efforts to defend against Russian advances.

Trump Taps Retired General as Ukraine-Russia Envoy

President-elect Donald Trump named retired three-star General Keith Kellogg on Wednesday as his special envoy for Ukraine and Russia.

Kellogg, a longtime Trump ally and military veteran, has been a key player in shaping the “America First” national security agenda. He previously served as national security adviser to Vice President Mike Pence and briefly held the same role for Trump.

The 80-year-old Kellogg faces the daunting task of navigating the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia, now entering its third year.

Trump has claimed he could end the conflict within 24 hours, hinting at potential territorial concessions for peace—a stance likely to spark debate.

#BREAKING: Trump nominates America First Policy Institute co-chairman General Keith Kellogg as Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia.

THIS GUY WILL LAY DOWN THE LAW! Peace is coming. 🔥

Kellogg is the co-chair at Center for American Security for the America First Policy… pic.twitter.com/9WTPRRK1g5

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 27, 2024

Kellogg’s appointment aligns with Trump’s broader effort to differentiate his approach from the Biden administration, which has funneled over $56 billion in aid to Ukraine since the war began.

Kellogg, who helped draft Trump’s national security policy book, has advocated for strong leadership to secure a peace deal.

His deep involvement in past Trump controversies, including the infamous 2019 call with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and the events of January 6, 2021, adds an extra layer of intrigue to his new role.

Supporters say his experience makes him well-suited to tackle this high-stakes challenge.

Israel-Hezbollah Truce Brings Fragile Relief to Border Villages

A shaky ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah has brought a moment of relief after more than a year of fighting.

Thousands of displaced Lebanese are returning to their homes Wednesday, many to find villages flattened and livelihoods destroyed.

Despite warnings from both Israeli and Lebanese forces to avoid frontline areas, families packed their cars and headed back, determined to rebuild.

The ceasefire, brokered by the US and France, demands Hezbollah pull its fighters from southern Lebanon while Israeli troops retreat to their side of the border.

But Israel says it’ll strike again if Hezbollah violates the terms.

Meanwhile, southern Lebanon remains littered with rubble and unexploded weapons, with residents like Fatima Hanifa expressing defiance: “We lost everything, but it’s OK. We’ll rebuild stronger,” quoted from AP News reported.

Hezbollah is calling the truce a victory, but not everyone in Lebanon feels the same.

Critics argue the group dragged the country into an unnecessary war for Iran’s interests, leaving thousands dead and worsening Lebanon’s fragile economy.

On the Israeli side, there’s skepticism, too. Some worry Hezbollah wasn’t defeated and that border towns still aren’t safe for displaced Israelis to return.

For now, the ceasefire offers a glimmer of hope, but with tensions high and much of the south in ruins, it’s unclear if peace will hold.

US, Allies Call Out Mozambique Over Protest Violence

The US, Britain, Canada, Norway, and Switzerland have spoken out Wednesday against the escalating violence in Mozambique, where post-election protests have rocked the nation.

In a joint statement released, they urged Mozambique’s government to ensure its security forces protect, not harm, civilians.

The unrest erupted after last month’s disputed election results, with opposition groups accusing the ruling Frelimo party of rigging the vote.

The party, in power since 1975, extended its five-decade rule, with Daniel Chapo set to succeed outgoing President Filipe Nyusi.

Protests in Mozambique continue and worries about excessive force persist. Today, a police car ran over a nonviolent demonstrator, whose status is unknown. We urge the authorities to ensure accountability and respect the right to peaceful assembly. pic.twitter.com/fFsZKdqeYb

— VOCAL Africa (@VOCALAfrica_) November 27, 2024

Tensions escalated further this week when footage surfaced of an armored vehicle plowing through protesters in Maputo, injuring a woman.

Mozambique’s army has since expressed “deep regret,” calling it an accident. However, international embassies are pushing for a thorough investigation.

The unrest has taken a deadly toll, with at least 67 people killed between mid-October and mid-November, according to local monitors.

As protests continue, the international community is keeping a close eye on Mozambique’s response to the crisis.

Sources: AP News, AFP News, Reuters