In addition to being a humanitarian nightmare, the on-going Syrian conflict has wreaked havoc on the country’s economy.

And the damage to both human capital and infrastructure could keep economic growth muted going forward — even if the conflict ends within a few years.

Operating under the assumption that the conflict will continue on for “several more years,” a BMI Research team forecasts that the Syrian economy will contract by an average of 3.9% annually from 2016 to 2019. This will drag down the beleaguered economy to its early-1990s size.

“Large-scale destruction amid the protraction of the current civil war will continue to damage the Syrian economy over the coming decade,” the BMI Research team argued in a recent report.