Unraveling Russia’s Strategic Playbook: Why It’s Unlikely The War Stops This Year

The conflict in Ukraine has escalated to a new level, as any seasoned operator can attest. In the lead-up to the Ukrainian military’s highly anticipated counterstrike, a wave of assaults in Moscow and the Belgorod Region along the Ukrainian border signaled the most substantial breaches into Russian territory since the onset of full-scale hostilities. Within Belgorod, combat-ready units seized villages and captured hostages. Meanwhile, in Moscow, UAVs were neutralized near the Kremlin this May. Then, eight more drones impacted residential areas on the city’s periphery. Since then, drone sightings have been reported in both Kursk (just about 24 hours ago) and Voronezh regions. However, contrary to other media’s portrayal, these incursions deep into Russian soil are unlikely to erode support for the ongoing conflict.

According to Jade McGlynn’s new book “Russia’s War,” most Russians still support the war. Through the book’s punchy yet well-researched writing style, McGlynn helps readers gain a deeper understanding of the complexities of this war. This book is essential for anyone wishing to understand the past, present, and future difficulties we face in dealing with Russia.

Russia’s War

Russian culture has a long history of valuing strong leaders and a powerful state. This is reflected in the current overwhelming support for President Putin and his government’s actions in Ukraine. Many Russians see Ukraine as an integral part of Russia’s historical and cultural sphere and thus view the conflict as defending their own interests.

Additionally, the Kremlin has done an effective job of controlling the media narrative and shaping public opinion. State-owned media outlets have consistently portrayed the conflict as an act of aggression by Ukraine and its Western allies while downplaying Russia’s own involvement. This has created a sense of nationalistic fervor among many Russians, who feel that their country is being unfairly attacked and must be defended at all costs.

It’s also worth noting that Russia’s military-industrial complex benefits greatly from the conflict as the government pours resources into military and defense spending. This creates jobs and stimulates economic growth, which is viewed as a positive by many Russians.

What Can We Expect This Year?

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine stems from a complex mix of historical, political, and cultural factors. The 2014 annexation of Crimea by Russia and the subsequent support for separatist movements in eastern Ukraine have resulted in a protracted and bloody conflict that has claimed over 13,000 lives thus far. The Minsk agreements brokered in 2014 and 2015, have failed to bring lasting peace to the region, as both sides continue to engage in sporadic hostilities along the contact line.

From a military standpoint, Russia maintains a sizable force near the Ukrainian border, including battle-hardened units with experience in Syria and other conflicts. This force projection serves multiple purposes: deterring further NATO expansion, maintaining pressure on the Ukrainian government, and providing support to pro-Russian separatist forces in eastern Ukraine.

Given the current dynamics, we can expect several possible scenarios for Russia’s actions in Ukraine this year:

1. Limited Incursions: Similar to what we’ve seen in recent years, Russia may continue to conduct limited incursions and covert operations to maintain pressure on Ukraine and test its military capabilities. These actions could include cyber-attacks, targeted assassinations, and support for separatist groups. This approach allows Russia to exert influence without provoking a full-scale conflict or direct intervention from Western powers.
2. Frozen Conflict: Russia may choose to maintain the status quo, preserving the current “frozen conflict” state in eastern Ukraine. By doing so, Moscow can keep Ukraine politically and militarily off-balance, preventing its integration into Western institutions such as NATO and the European Union.
3. Escalation: While less likely, there remains the possibility of a significant escalation in the conflict, potentially sparked by a miscalculation or provocation from either side. They could also explore more aggressive cyberattacks and, the last call, nuclear. In this scenario, Russia could launch a large-scale military operation, targeting more energy infrastructure and army installations in Ukraine. This would undoubtedly prompt a response from NATO and other Western powers, leading to potential regional or global repercussions.

Russia’s war against Ukraine is unlikely to end this year. Despite the Ukrainian government’s efforts to push back Russian forces, US and European officials have conceded that a full withdrawal of Russia from occupied Ukrainian land is highly unlikely. This conclusion is further supported by US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, who stated that Russia is unlikely to capture significantly more territory in 2023. Still, Russia is not showing any signs of abandoning its military campaign and continues to hold back Ukrainian forces. With no evidence of a way out of the conflict, all signs point towards more misery for Ukraine in the coming year.