When the Russian forces declared the fire with Ukraine, they forcefully displaced millions of Ukrainians, killed hundreds-of-thousands civilians, and left Ukraine under massive destruction while occupying all its key cities and frontiers.

Nearly five months after the war erupted, what’s left with Ukraine aside from financial aid from its allies is just one hope: to end the conflict “before winter sets in.” 

But what’s fascinating with this armed struggle is that hunches are already happening and experts are sharing their takes on what’s to come for the Russian Navy. Despite annexing Ukraine, the Russian Navy has failed to maintain its dominance in the war with Ukraine and exclusion in uniting the West, according to BBC.

Even though Russia’s naval forces have played an “important role” in the war, their conduct, however, during the power struggle seems to have been, at best, uneven, according to the 1945 assessment.

According to the Military-Industrial Commission, which is directly accountable to President Putin, Russia’s spending on its defense will rise by twenty percent.

“Moskva” (“Moscow”) (ex-“Slava,” which means “Glory”) is the lead ship of the Project 1164 Atlant class of guided missile cruisers in the Russian Navy. The Project 1164 Atlant class was developed as “Aircraft carriers killer.” This warship was used in the 2008 Russia–Georgia War. The Black Sea. Sevastopol. (George Chernilevsky, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons)

As a byproduct of the spike, Russia’s budget might surge by as much as 700 billion roubles (about 9.9 billion pounds) compared to 2021, as predicted by First Deputy Chairman Andrey Elchaninov.

Plagued fleet

The current fleet the Russian Navy is using is plagued with challenges. The fate of Russia’s aircraft carrier, Admiral Kuznetsov, is one discussion point that remains unanswered. Given that it has been embroiled in many technical accidents over the past fifteen years, along with several fires and the imploding of a crane, the Kuznetsov has been used more frequently as a source of amusement than as an actual fighting vessel. Since Kuznetsov has not been seen outside its home port since 2017, it is fair to assume that it no longer operates as a functional unit.

The Russian Navy was able to embargo ports consistently and fire missiles against targets located throughout Ukraine. However, while doing so, it suffered the loss of its Black Sea flagship, the Moskva. Russia also destroyed one of its most valuable warfare ships and failed to maintain hold of Snake Island. They also failed to capture and charge crucial “amphibious operations” along the Ukrainian seaboard.

Even though it’s accurate that Russia’s economy has been capable of withstanding punitive measures better than anticipated up to this point, it’s highly doubtful that this arrangement will stand up to scrutiny over a long period, notably if the US can maintain the progressive alliance. Moreover, at this juncture, it is unclear whether or not the Navy will successfully gain both the financial and power resources even to stabilize the situation, let alone restructure its armed force.

Aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov (in the dock). Source: Mikhail Rogov No machine-readable author provided. Serguei S. Dukachev assumed (based on copyright claims)., CC BY-SA 2.5 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.5>, via Wikimedia Commons)

In the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the US and a coalition of other countries imposed some of the harshest technology penalties ever levied against a foreign nation. These sanctions targeted Russia.

This is analogous to the effort undertaken during the Cold War to overwhelm Russian technological advancement, as The Economist indicated. Isolating the Soviet Union from advancing “international technology” was a fundamental component of the strategic interests that the US employed during the Cold War. Alienating the Soviets was, in fact, one of the most consistent components of the United States’ containment policy, even though its applications were so diverse.

What’s China’s Position?

US is actively supporting Ukraine in its war against Russia, while China has been seen as Russia’s strongest ally. But this union has a long history to tell.

The beginning of China and Russia’s military cooperation could be traced back to the early 1990s when the two countries first began implementing Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs) along their shared border to make it less militarized and guarded. The CBMs evolved into a complete “regular military consultation” process at multiple levels after the frontier tensions were settled in the early 2000s. These advances paved the way for the expansion of bilateral military-technical cooperation (MTC) in the middle to the late 2000s, simultaneous with the commencement of regular military manpower deployments and regular military operations. As a result, China has been accorded the status of “privileged partner” in Russia’s MTC.

Russian-Chinese talks. With President of China Xi Jinping. (Source: The Russian Presidential Press and Information Office, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons)

“If China decides to provide military assistance to Russia in the protracted war in Ukraine, it will risk becoming a target of not only secondary but also direct sanctions. The US has already started sanctioning China, even without sufficient evidence of China’s military assistance to Russia,” Mercy Kuo said.

As a result of its persistent strikes against Ukraine, what is happening now is a transient change in events demonstrating that Russian momentum will eventually disappear. It is now starting to undermine its only resource of dominance – relying on the superior power of its armed forces.
The events are clear. Ukraine might take years to overhaul the nation left in the wreckage, but it also paved the path to expose Russia’s weakness that led to the dubious end of their battalions: lack of strategic planning.