The invasion began with confusion within the Russian forces and a surprise for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. More than 200 days of dreaded uncertainty clouded Ukraine as Russia continued to press forward in critical regions like Donbas, Kherson, and Kharkiv. The other thing that pushed Ukrainians near the bring was how fast Russians were able to install quasi-regional leaders as Moscow tried to get way ahead of the situation in the war.

But, Kherson Oblast was a turning point. There had been classes within the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant that got the UN involved, but it was when Ukrainians reclaimed the Dnipro river that showed there’s a tiny bit of silver lining to look forward to.

Then, just a couple of weeks ago, Russia started pulling out electrical lines, oil supply, and gas in Ukraine, but Kyiv was steadfast in its slow-paced approach. It was months and months of analysts trying to predict how Russia would push forward. Do they have a secret in their arsenal? Will they be able to withstand the economic losses of the war? How long will this last?

So, with the massive defeat the Russian experienced in Kharkiv, what did the Russian intelligence and spy network get wrong in their analysis?