The Space National Guard: Will It Become a Reality Under Trump?

The idea of a Space National Guard has been floating around for a while, but with President-elect Donald Trump taking office for a second term, the prospects of it becoming a reality are looking more promising.

Trump has been vocal about creating a Space National Guard, a move he highlighted during his campaign and reinforced during his victory speech.

While the concept has gained considerable support from lawmakers and National Guard advocates, it has also faced significant opposition, particularly from the Air Force and Space Force, as well as from the Biden administration.

At the heart of the debate is whether or not America needs a separate branch dedicated to space within the National Guard.

Trump’s support for the idea comes as no surprise—he’s already established the Space Force during his first term, and he’s made it clear that he believes it’s time for the National Guard to step into the space domain too.

During a National Guard Association conference in August, Trump promised, “As president, I will sign historic legislation creating a Space National Guard.”

For many, this was a much-needed rallying cry for a change that’s been discussed for years but never fully realized.

The Case for a Space National Guard

Supporters of the Space National Guard argue that it’s the natural next step in expanding the military’s space capabilities.

Experts like Clayton Swope, deputy director of the Aerospace Security Project, believe that the odds of the Space National Guard becoming a reality are “pretty good.”

With Republicans soon to control both the House and Senate, many see the proposal as something that could pass smoothly through Congress.

Trump’s vocal backing has only added to the optimism surrounding the initiative.

The National Guard itself has been a big proponent, with groups like the National Guard Association of the United States (NGAUS) pushing hard for the creation of the new branch.

Retired Maj. Gen. Francis McGinn, president of NGAUS, expressed his enthusiasm via a statement to Military.com for Trump’s commitment to fulfilling this campaign promise, emphasizing that the idea has been on the table for years.

The plan is now likely to gain traction, especially if lawmakers can include it in the fiscal 2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA).

Advocates point to several advantages, including the ability to rapidly build partnerships and respond to space-related missions with a dedicated and flexible reserve force.

They also argue that the Space National Guard would strengthen the Space Force by providing a robust and immediate force that could be mobilized quickly, helping to meet the growing challenges in space defense.

Furthermore, it would offer crucial support for US missions that require cooperation with international allies, especially through programs like the State Partnership Program.

The Opposition: Space Force and Air Force Push Back

Despite the backing from various lawmakers and National Guard advocates, the proposal faces significant opposition, particularly from the Air Force and Space Force.

The Pentagon, along with Space Force leadership, has argued against creating a separate Space National Guard. Their primary concerns are cost and personnel issues.

The Air Force, in particular, has pushed for a different structure, proposing a model where space units would be incorporated into the Space Force rather than standing alone as part of the National Guard.

In fact, the Air Force initially endorsed a two-pronged approach, suggesting a combined model where reservists and National Guard members could serve as part-time personnel alongside full-time members of the Space Force.

However, this plan ran into complications due to conflicting legal authorities and the potential loss of mission capability if too many Guard members chose not to transfer into the new structure.

The Air Force’s position has been strengthened by the White House’s Office of Management and Budget, which opposed the creation of the Space National Guard, estimating that it would cost upwards of $500 million annually.

The National Guard, however, disputes this figure, claiming that the actual cost would be much lower.

While these concerns aren’t new, they are important. The Space Force would have a lot to lose if a separate Space Guard were established. There’s a risk that splitting resources could dilute the force’s overall capabilities.

Moreover, incorporating the National Guard into the mix could create additional layers of complexity, potentially affecting the speed and effectiveness with which America can respond to space-related threats.

The Future: What’s Next for the Space National Guard?

So, where does this leave us? While there’s still no guarantee that the initiative will move forward, the prospects are better than they’ve ever been.

Trump’s support, combined with the push from the National Guard and bipartisan lawmakers, gives the idea significant momentum.

As one Guard official noted, this could easily be one of the first promises Trump delivers on in his second term, especially given the attention it’s received over the years.

The timing is crucial. If this is to gain traction, it will likely need to be included in the 2025 NDAA, which is still being negotiated.

There’s hope that a compromise can be reached between the different sides, especially since both the House and Senate have previously introduced bills that would allow for the creation of a Space Guard. If those bills make it into the final legislation, the Space National Guard could become a reality sooner rather than later.

In the end, this is just one piece of a much larger puzzle. The growing importance of space as a domain of military conflict makes it clear that the US must adapt to new challenges. Whether or not the Space National Guard becomes part of that adaptation remains to be seen, but the conversation is far from over.

For now, supporters are hopeful that under Trump’s leadership, the dream of a Space National Guard will finally take shape.